可再生能源驅(qū)動的馬爾代夫的光明前景：2020-2030年能源行業(yè)路線圖

1、 HYPERLINK l _bookmark0 TABLES AND FIGURES v HYPERLINK l _bookmark1 FOREWORD BY HIS EXCELLENCY HUSSAIN RASHEED HASSAN, HYPERLINK l _bookmark1 MINISTER OF ENVIRONMENT vii HYPERLINK l _bookmark2 FOREWORD BY KENICHI YOKOYAMA, DIRECTOR GENERAL, HYPERLINK l _bookmark2 SOUTH ASIA DEPARTMENT, ADB viii HYPE

2、RLINK l _bookmark3 ACKNOWLEDGMENTS ix HYPERLINK l _bookmark4 ABBREVIATIONS x HYPERLINK l _bookmark5 WEIGHTS AND MEASURES xi HYPERLINK l _bookmark6 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY xii HYPERLINK l _bookmark11 INTRODUCTION 1 HYPERLINK l _bookmark12 Considerations Made in the Road Map due to COVID-19 Pandemic 2 HYPER

3、LINK l _bookmark13 ROAD MAP AMBITION 4 HYPERLINK l _bookmark13 Sector Vision 4 HYPERLINK l _bookmark15 Renewable Energy Resources 6 HYPERLINK l _bookmark16 Possibilities for Liquefied Natural Gas 9 HYPERLINK l _bookmark19 Policy Framework 12 HYPERLINK l _bookmark23 Scenarios 16 HYPERLINK l _bookmark

4、25 Results 18 HYPERLINK l _bookmark27 Alignment with Sustainable Development Goals 20 HYPERLINK l _bookmark28 SECTOR ASSESSMENT 22 HYPERLINK l _bookmark28 Fuel Imports 22 HYPERLINK l _bookmark30 Electricity Subsector 23 HYPERLINK l _bookmark38 Transport Subsector 31 HYPERLINK l _bookmark41 Liquefied

5、 Petroleum Gas for Cooking Subsector 33 HYPERLINK l _bookmark41 Risks and Barriers 33 HYPERLINK l _bookmark43 STRATEGY FOR THE ELECTRICITY SUBSECTOR 37 HYPERLINK l _bookmark43 Flagship Interventions 37 HYPERLINK l _bookmark43 Greater Male Region 37 HYPERLINK l _bookmark53 Other Inhabited Islands 45

6、HYPERLINK l _bookmark61 Resorts, Industrial, and Agricultural Islands 51 HYPERLINK l _bookmark69 Resulting Country Energy Matrix 58 HYPERLINK l _bookmark71 STRATEGY FOR OTHER SUBSECTORS 60 HYPERLINK l _bookmark71 Flagship Interventions 60 HYPERLINK l _bookmark72 Sea Transport 61 HYPERLINK l _bookmar

7、k73 Road Transport 62 HYPERLINK l _bookmark76 Liquefied Petroleum Gas Use in Cooking 63 HYPERLINK l _bookmark78 ENABLING THE TRANSITION 64 HYPERLINK l _bookmark78 Policy and Regulatory Measures 64 HYPERLINK l _bookmark81 Institutional Arrangements 70 HYPERLINK l _bookmark83 Financing Impacts of Rene

8、wable Energy Investments 72 HYPERLINK l _bookmark86 APPENDIXES 76 HYPERLINK l _bookmark87 Electricity Subsector, Base Case ScenarioRoad Maps Design HYPERLINK l _bookmark87 and Monitoring Framework 77 HYPERLINK l _bookmark88 Electricity Subsector, Paradigm Shift ScenarioRoad Maps Design HYPERLINK l _

9、bookmark88 and Monitoring Framework 82 HYPERLINK l _bookmark89 Transport and Cooking Subsectors, Base Case ScenarioRoad Maps Design HYPERLINK l _bookmark89 and Monitoring Framework 86 HYPERLINK l _bookmark90 Transport and Cooking Subsectors, Paradigm Shift ScenarioRoad Maps Design HYPERLINK l _bookm

10、ark90 and Monitoring Framework 89 HYPERLINK l _bookmark91 REFERENCES 92TABLES HYPERLINK l _bookmark7 E1Renewable Energy Infrastructure for the Greater Male Region xv HYPERLINK l _bookmark8 E2Renewable Energy Infrastructure for Other Inhabited Islands xvi HYPERLINK l _bookmark9 E3Renewable Energy Inf

11、rastructure for Resorts, Industrial, and Agricultural Islands xviii HYPERLINK l _bookmark10 E4Additional Financing for Road Map Implementation xix HYPERLINK l _bookmark18 Comparison of Conventional and Small-Scale Liquefied Natural Gas Infrastructure 11 HYPERLINK l _bookmark21 Relevant Strategic Act

12、ion Plan Policies and Targets for Clean Energy 14 HYPERLINK l _bookmark22 Relevant Strategic Action Plan Policy Priorities and Targets for Using Waste as Resource 15 HYPERLINK l _bookmark22 Relevant Strategic Action Plan Policy Priorities and Targets for Water and Sanitation 15 HYPERLINK l _bookmark

13、23 Relevant Strategic Action Plan Policy Priorities and Targets for Transport 16 HYPERLINK l _bookmark24 General Assumptions Used in Road Map Scenarios 17 HYPERLINK l _bookmark26 Road Map Results for Year 2030 19 HYPERLINK l _bookmark31 Electricity Production by Diesel Power Plants in the Greater Ma

14、le Region, 2019 24 HYPERLINK l _bookmark35 Relevant Activities Initiated by the Low-Carbon Energy Island Strategies Project 29 HYPERLINK l _bookmark45 Road Map Interventions for the Electricity Subsector 38 HYPERLINK l _bookmark51 Renewable Energy Infrastructure for the Greater Male Region, 20202030

15、 43 HYPERLINK l _bookmark53 Integration of Technology Innovation in the Greater Male Region 45 HYPERLINK l _bookmark57 Renewable Energy Infrastructure for Other Inhabited Islands, 20202030 49 HYPERLINK l _bookmark59 Integration of Technology Innovation in Other Inhabited Islands 50 HYPERLINK l _book

16、mark67 Proposed Project Investments in Resorts, Industrial, and Agricultural Islands 57 HYPERLINK l _bookmark71 Road Map Interventions for the Electricity Subsector 60 HYPERLINK l _bookmark80 Policy and Regulatory Measures to Enable Energy Sector Transition 65 HYPERLINK l _bookmark81 Strengthening o

17、f Institutional Arrangements for a Successful Road Map Implementation 70 HYPERLINK l _bookmark84 Estimated Investments to Achieve Targets 74FIGURES HYPERLINK l _bookmark13 Vision of Maldives Energy Sector 4 HYPERLINK l _bookmark14 ADBs 3D Approach to Addressing Energy Issues 5 HYPERLINK l _bookmark1

18、7 Alternatives for Liquefied Natural Gas Supply to the Greater Male Region 10 HYPERLINK l _bookmark20 Guiding Principles of Maldives Energy Regulatory Framework 13 HYPERLINK l _bookmark24 Interrelations Aimed at Enabling Environment 17 HYPERLINK l _bookmark27 Forecast of Fossil Fuels Consumed under

19、Two Road Map Scenarios Compared HYPERLINK l _bookmark27 to Business as Usual 20 HYPERLINK l _bookmark28 Fuel Imports by Maldives in 2019 22 HYPERLINK l _bookmark30 Evolution of Renewable Energy Installations in Maldives 23 HYPERLINK l _bookmark34 Installation of Hybrid Systems in Maldives by the POI

20、SED Project 27 HYPERLINK l _bookmark36 Maximum Day Demand Growth in a Business-as-Usual Scenario 30 HYPERLINK l _bookmark38 Electricity Consumption Growth in a Business-as-Usual Scenario 31 HYPERLINK l _bookmark39 Fuel Consumption Forecast for Transport 32 HYPERLINK l _bookmark41 Liquefied Petroleum

21、 Gas Consumption Forecast 33 HYPERLINK l _bookmark45 Forecast of the Peak Day Demand in the Greater Male Region 38 HYPERLINK l _bookmark46 Forecast of Electricity Production in the Greater Male RegionBase Case Scenario 39 HYPERLINK l _bookmark46 Forecast of Electricity Production in the Greater Male

22、 RegionParadigm Shift Scenario 39 HYPERLINK l _bookmark48 Forecast of Diesel Use in Electricity Production in the Greater Male Region 40 HYPERLINK l _bookmark49 Phase 1 of the Interconnection of the Greater Male Region 41 HYPERLINK l _bookmark55 Forecast of the Aggregated Peak Day Demand in Other In

23、habited Islands 46 HYPERLINK l _bookmark55 Forecast of Electricity Production in Other Inhabited IslandsBase Case Scenario 46 HYPERLINK l _bookmark56 Forecast of Electricity Production in Other Inhabited IslandsParadigm Shift Scenario 47 HYPERLINK l _bookmark56 Forecast of Diesel Use in Electricity

24、Production in Other Inhabited Islands 47 HYPERLINK l _bookmark62 Forecast for the Aggregated Peak Day Demand In Resorts, Industrial, HYPERLINK l _bookmark62 and Agricultural Islands 53 HYPERLINK l _bookmark64 Forecast of the Electricity Production in Resorts, Industrial, and Agricultural Islands HYP

25、ERLINK l _bookmark64 Base Case Scenario 54 HYPERLINK l _bookmark64 Forecast of the Electricity Production in Resorts, Industrial, and Agricultural Islands HYPERLINK l _bookmark64 Paradigm Shift Scenario 54 HYPERLINK l _bookmark65 Forecast of Diesel Use in Electricity Production in Resorts, Industria

26、l, HYPERLINK l _bookmark65 and Agricultural Islands 55 HYPERLINK l _bookmark69 Forecast of the Electricity Produced in Maldives, All Islands 58 HYPERLINK l _bookmark69 Forecast of Diesel Use in Electricity Production in Maldives, All Islands 58 HYPERLINK l _bookmark70 Forecast of the Reduction in Di

27、esel Use for Electricity Production in Maldives, All Islands 59 HYPERLINK l _bookmark72 Forecast of Diesel Use in Sea Transport Compared to Business as Usual 61 HYPERLINK l _bookmark73 Forecast of Petrol Use in Road Transport Compared to Business as Usual 62 HYPERLINK l _bookmark76 Forecast of Lique

28、fied Petroleum Gas Use in Cooking Compared to Business as Usual 63FOREWORD BY HIS EXCELLENCY HUSSAIN RASHEED HASSAN, MINISTER OF ENVIRONMENTMaldives energy sector is firmly transitioning to an environmentally friendly sector by adopting renewable energy. Investing in renewable energy is a key priori

29、ty of theGovernment of Maldives to minimize our heavy dependence on imported fossil fuel and to improve energy security of the country, thereby building up the countrys economic resilience. Investments in renewable energy and energy efficiency give us the opportunityto lower our greenhouse gas emiss

30、ions and electricity production costs and reduce the imports of diesel fuel, consequently reducing the burden on government finances.Maldives needs to integrate renewable energy into power systems in all inhabited islands and resort islands, and to decarbonize the transport sector and industrial act

31、ivities at a faster pace.The success of flagship projects such as Preparing Outer Islands for Sustainable Energy Development (POISED) project and the efforts of our utility companies have brought us closer to achieving our vision for the energy sector: “the provision of sufficient, reliable, sustain

32、able, secure and affordable energy to citizens and businesses.” The solar-photovoltaic-battery diesel hybrid energy systems introduced by the POISED project has been achieving fuel savings of up to 28% compared todiesel-only generator sets. It makes the case that investing in renewable energy is fin

33、ancially sound and contributes to de-risking financial investments in renewable energy in Maldives.Transitioning into a low-carbon energy sector with decreased dependence on imported fossil fuels would, however, require addressing financial, infrastructural, technical, regulatory, and human resource

34、 challenges. This Road Map proposes two scenarios conducive to creating new opportunities for business, employment creation, and infrastructural developments. The base case scenario forecastsa continuous moderate transformation of the national energy matrix as we have been successfully achieving dur

35、ing the past 2 years. A radically more ambitious scenario is also presented in this Road Map. This paradigm shift scenario represents a fundamental transformational change the country aims at, and will have a profound impact on the national energy matrix and on the sectors business models. Walking t

36、he path of this more ambitious scenario will require the coordinated efforts of our institutions with international donor and development partners. The aim of this RoadMap is to provide guidance to our government agencies, utility companies, and the private sector to improve their coordination effor

37、ts and alignment of external assistance to national policy priorities.Hussain Rasheed Hassan, PhD Minister of Environment The Republic of MaldivesFOREWORD BY KENICHI YOKOYAMA, DIRECTOR GENERAL, SOUTH ASIA DEPARTMENT, ADBADB has been supporting Maldives since 1978. Cumulative loan and grant disbursem

38、ents to Maldives amount to $402.29 million. These were financed by regular and concessional ordinary capital resources, the Asian Development Fund, and other special funds. ADB is committed tokeep its support to Maldives in the most challenging times: On 25 June, ADB approved a $50 million budget su

39、pport package for Maldives comprising a $25 million grant and a $25 million concessional loan to help the government effectively implement its coronavirus disease (COVID-19) response plan.ADB will continue to support Maldives energy transition. The revision of the Maldives Energy Road Map to conside

40、r the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic illustrates our long-term commitment to Maldives. Current ADB operations support efforts to enhance the countrys energy efficiency, improve urban infrastructure and services, develop the private sector (including micro, small, and medium enterprises), and stren

41、gthen the capacities of the government in fiscal and project portfolio management.In dealing with the high cost of electricity and the unreliability of power supply, the Government of Maldives and ADB have been working closely to replace inefficient diesel-based power generation grids with hybrid re

42、newable systems through the Preparing Outer Islands for Sustainable Energy Development (POISED) project. This work is expected to benefit more than 160 islands, generate at least 21 megawatts of solar power, substantially cut carbon dioxide emissions, and reduce the subsidy burden on the government.

43、In addition to photovoltaic solar, many other renewable resources are still untapped. Marine floating solar, in-stream tidal conversion, ocean biomass, and wind resources can all be deployed with due consideration of environmental implications. Marine solar and wind are already cost-competitive with

44、 petroleum-based electricity generation and, in some locations, these are producing surplus energy, which is being converted to hydrogen and oxygen using electrolysis. Reef cultivation and sustainable seafood production can be colocated with marine energy production facilities with mutually benefici

45、al ecosystem benefits, also interesting for the tourism industry. These energy resources can help diversify Maldives economy and make sea transport cleaner, and the tourism sector more sustainable.ADB hopes that this Road Map establishes guidelines for the energy transition, and contributes to econo

46、mic growth, end of poverty, creation of employment, reduction of regional disparities in living standards, and resilience to weather severity and to other effects of climate change.Kenichi YokoyamaDirector General South Asia Department, ADBThe technical study was prepared by a team led by Jaimes Kol

47、antharaj, senior energy specialist,South Asia Energy Division (SAEN) and Sergio Ugarte (SQ Consult). The team is grateful for the valuable guidance and support of Kenichi Yokoyama, director general, South AsiaDepartment; Yongping Zhai, chief, energy sector group; Priyantha Wijayatunga, director, SAE

48、N; and Ronald Antonio Butiong, chief of Regional Cooperation and Integration Thematic Group,Sustainable Development and Climate Change Department. The team acknowledges contributions from Maria Charina Apolo Santos, project analyst; Karen Grace Ochavo, associate environment officer; and Marietta L.

49、Marasigan, consultant.The team highly appreciates the guidance of Hussain Rasheed Hassan, Minister of Environment, Maldives. It also appreciates the informative comments received from the Ministry of Finance; Ministry of Economic Development; Ministry of National Planning, Housing and Infrastructure

50、; Ministry of Transport and Civil Aviation; Ministry of Fisheries, Marine Resources, and Agriculture; State Electric Company Ltd. (STELCO), and FENAKA. Lastly, it is worthwhile to acknowledge the support and inputs from the project management unit of the POISED project.The technical study also incor

51、porates learnings from the workshops on the Road Map for Low Carbon Development held in Maldives for capacity development of Maldives Energy Authority. The workshops were supported by experts in various aspects of renewable energy.ASPIREAccelerating Sustainable Private Investments in Renewable Energ

52、y CO2carbon dioxideGDPgross domestic productGHGgreenhouse gasIPPindependent power producer IWMCIsland Waste Management Center LNGliquefied natural gasLPGliquefied petroleum gasNDCNationally Determined Contribution NOx nitrogen oxideOTECocean thermal energy conversionPOISEDPreparing Outer Islands for

53、 Sustainable Energy Development PPApower purchase agreementPVphotovoltaicRfrufiyaa (currency of Maldives)SAPStrategic Action PlanSDGSustainable Development Goal SMEssmall and medium-sized enterprises SOx sulfur oxideSSLNGsmall-scale liquefied natural gas STELCOState Electric Company Ltd.SWACseawater

54、 air-conditioningURAUtility Regulatory AuthorityV2Gvehicle-to-gridWDCWomen Development Committee WECwave energy converterWTEwaste to energykWkilowattkWhkilowatt-hourkWpkilowatt-peakm3cubic meterm/smeter per secondMMTPAmillion air-conditioning tons per annum MTPAmetric ton per annumMWmegawattMWhmegaw

55、att-hourMWpmegawatt-peakThe Republic of Maldives comprises 1,192 small islands in the central Indian Ocean, with a population estimated at 533,941 people in 2019. Maldives has been a development success in the recent decades, mostly attributed to the revenues from a flourishing tourism industry that

56、comprises around 25% of the national gross domestic product (GDP). The magnitude of the economic impacts caused by the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic has exposed the weaknesses ofthe economic model implemented in Maldives over the recent decades. It will take months or even years to reach t

57、he tourism goals of the country. The countrys recovery will largely depend on the rapid transformation and diversification of its economic activities. Reliable and affordable energy supply are needed to address the transformation challenge. Maldives does not have reserves of fossil fuels, but it has

58、 abundant renewable energy resources, including solar, wind, and ocean. Investments in renewable energy are an opportunity to lower the costs of electricity production and reduce fuel imports andthe burden on government finances. This Road Map establishes the guidelines to transit from afossil-fuel-

59、 based energy sector to a cost-effective, business-competitive, affordable, and sustainable renewable energy.Road Map AmbitionMaldives vision for the energy sector is the “provision of sufficient, reliable, sustainable, secure and affordable energy for a prosperous Maldives.” This vision is sustaine

60、d on three pillars: energyefficiency, renewable energy, and integration of technology innovation. This Road Map has been fully aligned with the countrys Energy Policy and Strategy 2016 and the countrys Strategic Action Plan (SAP) 20192023.There are no proven reserves of fossil fuels in Maldives. How