英語(yǔ)文獻(xiàn)選讀(經(jīng)濟(jì)類(lèi))

1、Four implications of Chinas rate cut中國(guó)降息的四個(gè)預(yù)示TEAM MEMBERS小組成員BACKGROUNDBACKGROUNDThesecond cut in Chinas interest rates in three monthsreveals key elements in Beijings thinking as it tries to reconcile an economic policy agenda beset with conflicting priorities, analysts said on Monday. 三個(gè)月內(nèi)中國(guó)第二次降息顯

2、示了北京方面考慮的關(guān)鍵。周一，有專(zhuān)家稱(chēng)此次降息目的在于調(diào)節(jié)經(jīng)濟(jì)政策進(jìn)程和需要優(yōu)先考慮的事項(xiàng)之間的矛盾。The task before China requires some delicate maneuvers. It aims to wean the country off an extraordinary debt binge (seeMartin Wolf) while keeping GDP growth fairly robust. It hopes to combat disinflationary pressures while preventing the renminbi f

3、rom sliding too sharply against the US dollar. 中國(guó)目前的任務(wù)需要嚴(yán)密的策略。這個(gè)任務(wù)的目標(biāo)是使國(guó)家擺脫巨額的債務(wù)危機(jī)的同時(shí)保持GDP適度健康增長(zhǎng)，在抵御通貨緊縮壓力的同時(shí)防止人民幣對(duì)美元匯率下降過(guò)快。debt binge 債務(wù)危機(jī)disinflationary pressure通貨緊縮壓力It wants to curb a dangerous slump in industrial profits without resorting to another round of investment pump-priming. It needs to

4、 keep domestic liquidity levels buoyantin spite of a surge in capital flight.它試圖遏制工業(yè)利潤(rùn)的暴跌，而不依靠新一輪刺激經(jīng)濟(jì)的政府投資；此外，還需提高國(guó)內(nèi)資金流動(dòng)性水平，盡管外逃的資本在不斷增加。industrial profits 工業(yè)利潤(rùn)pump-priming 刺激經(jīng)濟(jì)的政府投資liquidity levels 流動(dòng)性水平Several analysts said the latest rate cut, which shaved 0.25 per cent off the benchmark lending

5、and deposit rate, reveals at least four planks in Beijings approach as it tackles these contradictions.一些專(zhuān)家表示，最新的降息降低了0.25%的存貸款基準(zhǔn)利率，這揭露了北京所采取的措施中的至少四條綱領(lǐng)，因?yàn)樗鉀Q了這幾個(gè)方面的矛盾。benchmark lending and deposit rate 存貸款基準(zhǔn)利率拓展拓展存貸款基準(zhǔn)利率歷年調(diào)整情況 （1）經(jīng)國(guó)務(wù)院批準(zhǔn)，中國(guó)人民銀行決定，自2013年7月20日起全面放開(kāi)金融機(jī)構(gòu)貸款利率管制。 （2）2014年11月21日中國(guó)人民銀行決定，自2

6、014年11月22日起下調(diào)金融機(jī)構(gòu)人民幣貸款和存款基準(zhǔn)利率。金融機(jī)構(gòu)一年期貸款基準(zhǔn)利率下調(diào)0.4個(gè)百分點(diǎn)至5.6%;一年期存款基準(zhǔn)利率下調(diào)0.25個(gè)百分點(diǎn)至2.75%,同時(shí)結(jié)合推進(jìn)利率市場(chǎng)化改革,將金融機(jī)構(gòu)存款利率浮動(dòng)區(qū)間的上限由存款基準(zhǔn)利率的1.1倍調(diào)整為1.2倍;其他各檔次貸款和存款基準(zhǔn)利率相應(yīng)調(diào)整,并對(duì)基準(zhǔn)利率期限檔次作適當(dāng)簡(jiǎn)并。 （3）2015年3月1日中國(guó)人民銀行決定下調(diào)金融機(jī)構(gòu)人民幣貸款和存款基準(zhǔn)利率。金融機(jī)構(gòu)一年期貸款基準(zhǔn)利率下調(diào)0.25個(gè)百分點(diǎn)至5.35%;一年期存款基準(zhǔn)利率下調(diào)0.25個(gè)百分點(diǎn)至2.5%,同時(shí)結(jié)合推進(jìn)利率市場(chǎng)化改革,將金融機(jī)構(gòu)存款利率浮動(dòng)區(qū)間的上限由 存款基準(zhǔn)

7、利率的1.2倍調(diào)整為1.3倍;其他各檔次存貸款基準(zhǔn)利率及個(gè)人住房公積金存貸款利率相應(yīng)調(diào)整。Managing debt, not managing growth0101PART1Crucial to any understanding of Chinas monetary policy priorities is the insight that Beijing is more concerned these days with managing debt than it is with managing GDP growth, analysts said. 專(zhuān)家稱(chēng)，理解中國(guó)貨幣政策重點(diǎn)關(guān)鍵的一

8、點(diǎn)是，比起促進(jìn)GDP增長(zhǎng)，北京方面這段時(shí)間更加注重債務(wù)的管理。The reason for this is compelling. With total debt estimated at over 240 per cent of GDP, China paid far more in debt service charges last year than the total value of its economic growth. Thus bringing the debt load down is an essential part of safeguarding future gro

9、wth. 采取這樣做法的理由是值得關(guān)注的。由于估計(jì)的債務(wù)總額占GDP比重超過(guò)240%，中國(guó)去年支付的債務(wù)服務(wù)費(fèi)用遠(yuǎn)超過(guò)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)總額。因此減輕債務(wù)是保障未來(lái)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)措施的重要部分?！癐ndeed we think that monetary policy decisions in China are increasingly driven not just by the classic issues of growth and inflation, but also by the need to manage the very high level of debt,” say Andrew Ba

10、tson and Chen Long at GaveKalDragonomics, a research firm. “實(shí)際上我們認(rèn)為中國(guó)貨幣政策不僅僅決定于經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)和通貨膨脹的傳統(tǒng)問(wèn)題，而是越發(fā)傾向于根據(jù)控制高水平的負(fù)債的需要決定?！盩he chart to the left demonstrates Chinas predicament（困境）. Before the rate cut in November, the average interest rate charged on bank loans was 6.97 per cent.左邊的圖表展示了中國(guó)的困境。在11月份降息之前，

11、銀行貸款平均利率水平為6.97%。（比例是說(shuō)明性的，并不精確，假設(shè)各種債務(wù)的利率與平均貸款利率相等）If this is applied to the 200 per cent of GDP in non-government debt, the annual debt-service cost across the economy is equivalent to 14 per cent of GDP. But although the cuts in November and over the weekend have helped to bring down the cost of pr

12、ivate sector debt service relative to GDP, the ratio remains several percentage points higher than the countrys prevailing GDP growth rate (7.3 per cent in the fourth quarter of last year).如果非政府債務(wù)占GDP比重為200%，則每年整體經(jīng)濟(jì)償債成本會(huì)等于GDP的14%左右。盡管11月和上周末的降息有助于降低與GDP相關(guān)的私營(yíng)部門(mén)的償債成本，該比例仍然略高于國(guó)家一般的GDP增長(zhǎng)率（去年第四季度為7.3%）de

13、bt-service cost 償債成本 Private sector 私營(yíng)部門(mén)拓展拓展2 債務(wù)是影響利率行情的重要因素自2009年以來(lái)，國(guó)內(nèi)企業(yè)部門(mén)的廣義負(fù)債一直快速增長(zhǎng)，其增長(zhǎng)速度不僅超過(guò)了國(guó)內(nèi)生產(chǎn)總值的實(shí)際增長(zhǎng)率，而且也高于國(guó)內(nèi)生產(chǎn)總值的名義增長(zhǎng)率。這樣，債務(wù)率（廣義負(fù)債與名義國(guó)內(nèi)生產(chǎn)總值的比率）也在不斷上升中。所謂“廣義負(fù)債”，不僅包括企業(yè)對(duì)銀行的借貸，也包括企業(yè)在債券和票據(jù)市場(chǎng)的融資，還包括企業(yè)相互間的拆借和其他各種欠款等。在經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)減速的大背景下，企業(yè)負(fù)債率的上升也意味著它們通過(guò)舉借新債去償還到期舊債的壓力在不斷增加，而這傾向于推動(dòng)利率上升?？梢哉f(shuō)，企業(yè)部門(mén)負(fù)債率是影響利率水平走勢(shì)

14、的“第六個(gè)”重要宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)因素。除了一些行業(yè)中的企業(yè)負(fù)債外，一些地方的政府性債務(wù)近年來(lái)也在增加，它們可能也給利率行情帶來(lái)了顯著的推動(dòng)作用。有數(shù)據(jù)表明，2014年到期需償還的地方政府負(fù)有償還責(zé)任債務(wù)占政府債務(wù)總額的21.9%，是地方政府償債壓力最重的一年。一些地方政府的償債壓力可能還會(huì)進(jìn)一步加大。幾年前借的債務(wù)，其利率水平低于最近的水平。如果一些地方政府在財(cái)政收入增長(zhǎng)減緩、財(cái)政赤字繼續(xù)存在的背景下，試圖用新債務(wù)置換舊債務(wù)，那么，新債務(wù)的利率水平將顯著高于舊債務(wù)。這樣，一些地方政府的債務(wù)負(fù)擔(dān)還將加大，正如一些行業(yè)中的企業(yè)債務(wù)負(fù)擔(dān)一樣 。更重要的是，債務(wù)的利率水平與債務(wù)負(fù)擔(dān)之間可能存在一定程度上的惡性

15、循環(huán)關(guān)系，即債務(wù)負(fù)擔(dān)加重后，新債務(wù)的利率上升壓力就會(huì)加大，而利率水平的上升則會(huì)進(jìn)一步加重債務(wù)負(fù)擔(dān)。在極端情況下，這種惡性循環(huán)的最終后果就是債務(wù)危機(jī)。 More rate cuts, but not in a big rush0202PART2Given the imperative to whittle away at Chinas debt mountain, almost all analysts see several future interest rate cuts and other forms of monetary easing in prospect. Indeed, the

16、 key questions are how quickly and how emphatically policy will be loosened. 中國(guó)削減如山的債務(wù)勢(shì)在必行，幾乎所有專(zhuān)家都認(rèn)為未來(lái)利率會(huì)進(jìn)一步降低，預(yù)料其他形式的貨幣政策將會(huì)放寬松。實(shí)際上，政策放寬的速度和程度是最為關(guān)鍵的問(wèn)題。Here is a sample of current predictions. Shen Jianguang, chief Asia economist at Mizuho Securities, said:“We now believe that the PBOC may need to cu

17、t interest rates at least two more times this year under our consumer price index (CPI) inflation forecast of 1.4 per cent year on year, and cut the (bank required reserve ratio) RRR four more times for major banks.”“我們預(yù)測(cè)CPI將同比增長(zhǎng)1.4%，因此我們相信”P(pán)BoC今年可能至少需要降息兩次并且至少四次降低主要銀行的法定準(zhǔn)備金率“PBOC 中國(guó)人民銀行（The Peoples

18、 Bank of China）RRR 法定準(zhǔn)備金（Required Reserve Ratio）Andrew Batson and Chen Long wrote:“We do expect at least one more interest rate cut in the next six months, to help address the growing gap between the high cost of capital and the falling return on capital that is discouraging new investment.” “我們預(yù)測(cè)接下

19、來(lái)的六個(gè)月里至少有一次以上的降息，以解決高成本和低收益之間的差距越來(lái)越大，從而阻礙新的投資的問(wèn)題”Andr de Silva, Head of Asia-Pacific Rates Research at HSBC, wrote:“Given the slowdown in domestic demand, there is scope for inflation to fall further. More easing, beyond the latest lending rate cut, has to be carried out to bring about a material fa

20、ll in cost of financing within the system. HSBC Economics expects one more lending rate cut and one more RRR reduction in the second quarter of 2015.” 由于國(guó)內(nèi)需求放緩，通貨膨脹還有進(jìn)一步下滑的余地。除了最近的降低貸款利率，應(yīng)當(dāng)執(zhí)行更多的寬松政策來(lái)實(shí)質(zhì)性地降低系統(tǒng)內(nèi)金融成本。HSBC預(yù)測(cè)，在2015年第二季度，還會(huì)有至少一次貸款利率和法定準(zhǔn)備金率的下調(diào)。HSBC 匯豐銀行（The Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Cor

21、poration Limited）The main argument against cutting rates in a rush is that such a policy could risk reigniting a domestic borrowing spree, while also applying an unwelcome amount of pressure on the renminbi to depreciate against the strong US dollar. 反對(duì)過(guò)分急于降息的主要論點(diǎn)在于，這樣的政策有引起國(guó)內(nèi)借貸熱潮，同時(shí)加大人民幣對(duì)強(qiáng)勢(shì)美元貶值的壓力。

22、Nevertheless, with disinflation driving real interest rates higher (the real deposit rate rose to 2.5 per cent in January, the highest level since October 2009, and real interbank interest rates were at a historical high of 4.11 per cent), some cuts are required simply to keep the price of money sta

23、ble. 然而，隨著通貨緊縮驅(qū)使實(shí)際利率上升（一月份，實(shí)際存款利率上升到2.5%，是自2009年10月以來(lái)最高水平；并且實(shí)際同業(yè)拆借利率高達(dá)歷史高點(diǎn)4.11%），需要削減利率來(lái)保持貨幣價(jià)格穩(wěn)定。interbank interest rates 銀行間同業(yè)拆借利率 Easing a dangerous industrial profit slump 0303PART3The other important imperative for Beijing is to cushion the blow for industrial enterprises by cutting their intere

24、st burdens, in order to forestall a meltdown in bank asset quality. 為了防止銀行貸款質(zhì)量危機(jī)，北京方面的另一個(gè)當(dāng)務(wù)之急是通過(guò)削減工業(yè)企業(yè)的利息負(fù)擔(dān)以減輕對(duì)其的打擊。The chart to the left shows the precipitous decline in the profits of industrial enterprises at the end of last year. 左邊這個(gè)圖表顯示了去年年底工業(yè)企業(yè)利潤(rùn)急劇下跌的情況。In December, industrial company profits

25、 fell 8.0 per cent year on year, while full-year 2014 profit for state-owned enterprises (SOEs) dropped by 7.8 per cent year on year, and increased a mere 6.9 per cent for the private sector. By industry, flat glass, cement, new energy and steel production continue to be hit by unused capacity, whil

26、e financing expenses are rising. 12月，工業(yè)企業(yè)利潤(rùn)同比減少8個(gè)百分點(diǎn)，同時(shí)2014年國(guó)有企業(yè)全年利潤(rùn)同比下降7.8個(gè)百分點(diǎn)，而私營(yíng)企業(yè)僅增長(zhǎng)6.9%。從行業(yè)來(lái)看，平板玻璃、水泥、新能源、鋼鐵生產(chǎn)都因生產(chǎn)力過(guò)剩遭到打擊，而融資成本依然在不斷上升。SOEs (state-owned enterprises) 國(guó)有企業(yè)private sector 私營(yíng)部門(mén)Beijing is clear that unless it tempers this downward momentum, the build up of non-performing loans in th

27、e banking system could explode as companies fail to service their bank debt. 北京方面很清楚，由于企業(yè)無(wú)法償還銀行債務(wù)，如果不采取措施調(diào)解這種下跌勢(shì)頭，銀行系統(tǒng)聚積的不良貸款可能會(huì)最終釀成巨災(zāi)。If that was to happen, the ebbing pace of fixed asset investments (FAI) the main driver of economic growth could slacken into a rout. Mizuhos Shen already expects FA

28、I to grow at only 14.6 per cent in the January-February period, down from 15.7 per cent in December last year 如果這種情況發(fā)生，會(huì)促使固定資產(chǎn)投資經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)主要驅(qū)動(dòng)力從放緩到崩潰。瑞穗銀行的沈先生預(yù)測(cè)到固定資產(chǎn)投資在1到2月份期間僅增長(zhǎng)14.6%，較去年12月的15.7%有所下降。FAI 固定資產(chǎn)投資（fixed asset investments）non-performing loans 不良貸款 Mizuho 株式會(huì)社銀行（日文名）/瑞穗銀行（中文名）Rate cuts inhibi

29、ted by surging capital outflows 0404One key constraint inhibiting rate cuts is a well-established pattern of capital outflows. As rates decline, so investment funds rush out of the country seeking higher returns elsewhere, adding pressure for a renminbi depreciation against the US dollar. 阻礙降息的一個(gè)關(guān)鍵制

30、約因素是資本外流的固定模式。當(dāng)利率下降，加上人民幣對(duì)美元匯率貶值的壓力，國(guó)內(nèi)的投資基金會(huì)流向報(bào)酬更高的國(guó)家。PART4 capital outflow 資本外流Bn（billion）十億Capital outflows reached Rmb 118bn in December and Rmb108bn in January, according to HSBC, marking the first time since data was made available that there has been two consecutive months of renminbi outflows in excess of Rmb100bn. 12月，中國(guó)外流資本金額達(dá)1180億，1月份達(dá)1080億。據(jù)HSBC稱(chēng)，這標(biāo)志著自數(shù)據(jù)可獲得以來(lái)，第一次人民幣外流已經(jīng)連續(xù)兩個(gè)月超過(guò)1000億元?！癘utflows are likely to persist, creating a structural shortage of liquidity that the central bank will need to offset