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1、Energy in Transition能源的轉(zhuǎn)變The era of cheap and convenient sources of energy is coming to an end. A transition to more expensive but less polluting sources must now be managed.能源資源價(jià)格低廉、使用便捷的時(shí)代已經(jīng)過(guò)去，目前應(yīng)向盡管價(jià)格較高、但污染較小的資源轉(zhuǎn)變。John P. Holdren1. Understanding this transition requires a look at the two-sided co

2、nnection between energy and human well-being. Energy contributes positively to well-being by providing such consumer services as heating and lighting as well as serving as a necessary input to economic production. But the costs of energy including not only the money and other resources devoted to ob

3、taining and exploiting it but also environmental and sociopolitical impacts detract from well-being.了解這一轉(zhuǎn)變，需首先看一看能源和人類幸福的雙重關(guān)系。從積極的意義上說(shuō)，能源為人類幸福作出了貢獻(xiàn)，它為經(jīng)濟(jì)生產(chǎn)活動(dòng)提供必要投入的同時(shí)，也提供了諸如取暖、照明等消費(fèi)服務(wù)。然而，人類為利用能源所付出的代價(jià)卻削弱了能源為其帶來(lái)的利益，這種代價(jià)不但包括為獲取和利用能源所投入的資金和其他資源，而且包含了能源開發(fā)和利用所產(chǎn)生的環(huán)境影響和社會(huì)政治影響。2. For most of human history, t

4、he dominant concerns about energy have centered on the benefit side of the energy well-being equation. Inadequacy of energy resources or (more often) of the technologies and organizations for harvesting, converting, and distributing those resources has meant insufficient energy benefits and hence in

5、convenience, deprivation and constraints on growth. The 1970s, then, represented a turning point. After decades of constancy or decline in monetary costs and of relegation of environmental and sociopolitical costs to secondary status energy was seen to be getting costlier in all respects. It began t

6、o be plausible that excessive energy costs could pose threats on a par with those of insufficient supply. It also became possible to think that expanding some forms of energy supply could create costs exceeding the benefits.人類歷史發(fā)展長(zhǎng)河中，人們主要關(guān)心的是能源和人類安康等式關(guān)系中有利的一面。能源資源不足或者（更經(jīng)常）開采、加工和分配這些資源所需技術(shù)與機(jī)構(gòu)的不足，會(huì)影響能

7、源為人類帶來(lái)利益，同時(shí)意味著能源的增長(zhǎng)遭到干擾、損害或限制。到了20世紀(jì)70年代，出現(xiàn)了一個(gè)轉(zhuǎn)折點(diǎn)。此前的幾十年中，能源的資金成本一直保持穩(wěn)定，甚或有所下降，而且，其所牽扯的環(huán)境成本和社會(huì)政治成本一直處于次要地位。但20世紀(jì)70年代開始，開發(fā)和利用能源的多方成本均顯著增長(zhǎng)。人們自然有理由認(rèn)為：高昂的能源成本所帶來(lái)的威脅已同能源供應(yīng)不足所產(chǎn)生的危險(xiǎn)不相上下。同時(shí)，也有人擔(dān)心，依靠擴(kuò)大能源資源增加供應(yīng)所需付出的代價(jià)，也許大于其所帶來(lái)的利益。3. The crucial question at the beginning of the 1990s is whether the trend that

8、began in the 1970s will prove to be temporary or permanent. Is the era of cheap energy really over, or will a combination of new resources, new technology and changing geopolitics bring it back? One key determinant of the answer is the staggering scale of energy demand brought forth by 100 years of

9、unprecedented population growth, coupled with an equally remarkable growth in per capita demand of industrial energy forms. It entailed the use of dirty coal as well as clean; undersea oil as well as terrestrial; deep gas as well as shallow; mediocre hydroelectric sites as well as good ones; and def

10、orestation as well as sustainable fuelwood harvesting.20世紀(jì)90年代初期人們關(guān)注的焦點(diǎn)在于這種始于70年代的能源發(fā)展趨勢(shì)是暫時(shí)的還是長(zhǎng)遠(yuǎn)的。廉價(jià)能源時(shí)代是真正一去不復(fù)返，還是通過(guò)開發(fā)新能源、應(yīng)用新技術(shù)、改革地緣政治秩序等措施，有可能重登歷史舞臺(tái)？回答這個(gè)問(wèn)題的一個(gè)關(guān)鍵因素是過(guò)去100年以來(lái)因人口空前增長(zhǎng)帶來(lái)令人瞠目的能源需求以及同樣使人無(wú)從應(yīng)對(duì)的人均工業(yè)能源需求。急劇增長(zhǎng)的能源需求使得人類對(duì)能源的使用無(wú)所不用其極：不管是清潔煤炭還是劣質(zhì)煤炭，見(jiàn)煤就挖；無(wú)論是陸上石油還是海底石油，深層氣還是淺層氣，見(jiàn)油氣就采；水電站建設(shè)不論適宜與否，見(jiàn)水就

11、上；一邊綠化造林以求燃料樹木可持續(xù)發(fā)展，一邊卻砍樹毀林。4. Except for the huge pool of oil underlying the Middle East, the cheapest oil and gas are already gone. Even if a few more giant oil fields are discovered, they will make little difference against consumption on todays scale. Oil and gas will have to come increasingly,

12、for most countries, from deeper in the earth and from imports whose reliability and affordability cannot be guaranteed.除了中東地區(qū)蘊(yùn)藏著巨大的石油資源，地球上廉價(jià)的油氣資源已經(jīng)不復(fù)存在。即使偶爾找到幾個(gè)大油田，同當(dāng)今巨大的能源消耗相比，也是杯水車薪。對(duì)于大多數(shù)國(guó)家來(lái)說(shuō)，油氣資源越來(lái)越多地依賴于深層埋藏，越來(lái)越多地依賴進(jìn)口，且不說(shuō)進(jìn)口油氣資源的可靠性無(wú)法得到保障，其對(duì)進(jìn)口國(guó)的支付能力也是一個(gè)考驗(yàn)。5. There are a variety of other energy re

13、sources that are more abundant than oil and gas. Coal, solar energy, and fission and fusion fuels are the most important ones. But they all require elaborate and expensive transformation into electricity or liquid fuels in order to meet societys needs. None has very good prospects for delivering lar

14、ge quantities of electricity at costs comparable to those of the cheap coal-fired and hydropower plants of the 1960s. It appears, then, that expensive energy is a permanent condition, even without allowing for its environmental costs.誠(chéng)然，其他許多資源的儲(chǔ)藏量大于石油和天然氣，最重要的有煤、太陽(yáng)能、聚變裂變?nèi)剂系?。但這些資源轉(zhuǎn)化成電力或液體燃料，以滿足社會(huì)需求，均

15、需經(jīng)過(guò)技術(shù)復(fù)雜、成本昂貴的轉(zhuǎn)化過(guò)程。同20世紀(jì)60年代成本低廉的燃煤火電站和水力發(fā)電站相比，僅從成本角度考慮，以上各種資源用于大規(guī)模發(fā)電的可能性極小。因此，即使不考慮能源開采的環(huán)保成本，能源價(jià)格居高不下已成無(wú)可改變的定局。6. The capacity of the environment to absorb the effluents and other impacts of energy technologies is itself a finite resource. The finitude is manifested in two basic types of environment

16、al costs. External costs are those imposed by environmental disruptions on society but not reflected in the monetary accounts of the buyers and sellers of the energy. “Internalized costs” are increases in monetary costs imposed by measures, such as pollution-control devices, aimed at reducing the ex

17、ternal costs.環(huán)境吸納由于能源利用而產(chǎn)生的廢棄物和其他影響的能力本身也是有限度的，表現(xiàn)在兩方面的環(huán)境成本上。所謂“外延成本”即由于環(huán)境遭到破壞對(duì)社會(huì)產(chǎn)生的影響，但尚未反映到能源買賣雙方的交易價(jià)格上；所謂“內(nèi)涵成本”即為降低外延成本而采取各種措施（如污染防治措施）所引起的資金成本的增長(zhǎng)。7. Both types of environmental costs have been rising for several reasons. First, the declining quality of fuel deposits and energy-conversion sites to

18、 which society must now turn means more material must be moved or processed, bigger facilities must be constructed and longer distances must be traversed. Second, the growing magnitude of effluents from energy systems has led to saturation of the environments capacity to absorb such effluents withou

19、t disruption. Third, the monetary costs of controlling pollution tend to increase with the percentage of pollutants removed.兩種環(huán)境成本均一直呈增長(zhǎng)趨勢(shì)，原因是多方面的。首先，社會(huì)發(fā)展所依賴的燃料礦藏和加工地質(zhì)量下降，必然要求礦物運(yùn)輸和加工的數(shù)量增加、設(shè)施擴(kuò)大、運(yùn)輸距離延長(zhǎng)。第二，利用能源所產(chǎn)生的廢棄物不斷增加，使得環(huán)境不遭破壞地吸納廢棄物的能力達(dá)到了極限。第三，污染防治所需的資金成本亦將隨著消除污染源比例的提高而提高。8. Despite these expenditu

20、res, the remaining uninternalized environmental costs have been substantial and in many cases are growing. Those of greatest concern are the risk of death or disease as a result of emissions or accidents at energy facilities and the impact of energy supplied on the global ecosystem and on internatio

21、nal relations.盡管代價(jià)高昂，尚未內(nèi)化的環(huán)境成本一直居高不下，并在許多情形下呈增長(zhǎng)趨勢(shì)，其中最引人關(guān)注的是由能源設(shè)施排放廢物或發(fā)生事故所帶來(lái)的死亡和疾病，以及由于能源供應(yīng)對(duì)于全球生態(tài)系統(tǒng)和國(guó)際關(guān)系所造成的影響。9. The impacts of energy technologies on public health and safety are difficult to pin down with much confidence. In the case of air pollution from fossil fuels, in which the dominant threa

22、t to public health is thought to be particulates formed from sulfur dioxide emissions, a consensus on the number of deaths caused by exposure has proved impossible. Widely differing estimates result from different assumptions about fuel compositions, air pollution control technology, power-plant sit

23、ting in relation to population distribution, meteorological conditions affecting sulfate formation, and, above all, the relation between sulfate concentrations and disease. 能源技術(shù)對(duì)于大眾健康和安全所造成的影響難以確定。以礦物燃料造成的空氣污染為例，一般認(rèn)為其對(duì)大眾健康的主要危害是由排放的二氧化硫形成的微粒，但接觸這種污染空氣究竟會(huì)導(dǎo)致多少人死亡，卻無(wú)法取得一致意見(jiàn)。各種估算數(shù)據(jù)千差萬(wàn)別，原因在于對(duì)以下各種因素的分析各不相

24、同，比如燃料構(gòu)成、空氣污染防治技術(shù)、發(fā)電廠選址同人口分布間的關(guān)系、氣象條件對(duì)硫化物形成的影響，最重要的是硫化物的濃度同疾病之間的關(guān)系。10. Large uncertainties also apply to the health and safety impacts of nuclear fission. In this case, differing estimates result in part from differences among sites and reactor types, in part from uncertainties about emissions from

25、fuel-cycle steps that are not yet fully operational (especially fuel reprocessing and management of uranium-mill tailings) and in part from different assumptions about the effects of exposure to low-dose radiation. The biggest uncertainties, however, relate to the probabilities and consequences of l

26、arge accidents at reactors, at reprocessing plants and in the transport of wastes.同樣，核反應(yīng)堆對(duì)于大眾健康和安全的影響亦無(wú)法確定。對(duì)此種影響的各種分析，既有來(lái)自關(guān)于反應(yīng)堆選址和類型的不同觀點(diǎn)，又有因?yàn)楹巳剂戏磻?yīng)過(guò)程中各個(gè)環(huán)節(jié)所產(chǎn)生的廢棄物究竟會(huì)產(chǎn)生何種影響尚無(wú)法確定，尤其是燃料重新加工過(guò)程以及鈾濃縮工廠廢料處理的影響無(wú)法確定；同時(shí)還有因?yàn)閷?duì)于人類接觸少量核輻射所造成的后果各執(zhí)己見(jiàn)。然而，最大的不確定性來(lái)自核反應(yīng)堆、重新加工工廠以及核廢料運(yùn)輸過(guò)程中可能發(fā)生重大事故的概率及其所造成的后果。11. Altogethe

27、r, the ranges of estimated hazards to public health from both coal-fired and nuclear-power plants are so wide as to extend from negligible to substantial in comparison with other risks to the population. There is little basis, in these ranges, for preferring one of these energy sources over the othe

28、r. For both, the very size of the uncertainty is itself a significant liability.同人類所面臨的其他威脅相比，火電廠和核電廠危害大眾健康的程度究竟多大，眾說(shuō)紛紜，莫衷一是。有的人認(rèn)為這種影響微不足道，可以忽略不計(jì)；也有人認(rèn)為這種影響程度嚴(yán)重、危害巨大。無(wú)論影響大小，都沒(méi)有理由對(duì)其中種種能源親此疏彼。無(wú)論是核電還是火電，其對(duì)人類的危害都無(wú)法確定，這本身就是一大憾事。12. Often neglected, but no less important, is the public health menace from t

29、raditional fuels widely used for cooking and water heating in the developing world. Perhaps 80 percent of global exposure to particulate air pollution occurs indoors in developing countries, where the smoke from primitive stoves is heavily laden with dangerous hydrocarbons. A disproportionate share

30、of this burden is borne, moreover, by women (who do the cooking) and small children (who indoors with their mothers).發(fā)展中國(guó)家普遍用于做飯燒水的傳統(tǒng)燃料對(duì)大眾健康造成的危害常常不為人們所關(guān)注，但同樣十分嚴(yán)重。全球大約80%的顆?？諝馕廴緛?lái)自發(fā)展中國(guó)家的室內(nèi)燒煮，原始簡(jiǎn)陋的爐灶排出的煙氣含有大量有害的烴，而且忍受這種有害物質(zhì)的大多數(shù)為婦女（室內(nèi)燒煮的主要承擔(dān)者）和兒童（長(zhǎng)時(shí)間同母親一直呆在室內(nèi)）。13. The ecological threats posed by energy

31、 supply are even harder to quantify than the threats to human health and safety from effluents and accidents. Nevertheless, enough is known to suggest they portend even larger damage to human well-being. This damage potential arises from the combination of two circumstances.同排放的廢棄物和事故對(duì)大眾健康造成的危害相比，能源

32、利用對(duì)生態(tài)系統(tǒng)的威脅更難以量化。然而，根據(jù)已有認(rèn)識(shí)足以判斷這種威脅對(duì)人類利益造成的損失將會(huì)更大。造成這種潛在的損失的原因是以下兩種情形同時(shí)存在。14. First, civilization depends heavily on services provided by ecological and geophysical processes such as building and fertilizing soil, regulating water supply, controlling pests and pathogens, and maintaining a tolerable cl

33、imate; yet it lacks the knowledge and the resources to replace natures services with technology. Second, human activities are now clearly capable of disrupting globally the processes that provide these services. Energy supply, both industrial and traditional, is responsible for a striking share of t

34、he environmental impacts of human activity. The environmental transition of the past 100 years driven above all by a 20-fold increase in fossil-fuel use and augmented by a tripling in the use of traditional energy forms has amounted to no less than the emergence of civilization as a global ecologica

35、l and geochemical force.首先，人類文明嚴(yán)重依賴于由各種生態(tài)和地球物理過(guò)程所提供的各種服務(wù)，諸如土地耕作、施肥、供水設(shè)施、病蟲害防治、維持能夠忍受的氣候等等。但是，人類卻缺乏知識(shí)和資源來(lái)利用技術(shù)代替自然界所提供的各種服務(wù)。其次，人類活動(dòng)已顯而易見(jiàn)地能夠在全球范圍破壞提供這些服務(wù)的進(jìn)程。無(wú)論是工業(yè)形式還是傳統(tǒng)家庭的能源利用，在人類活動(dòng)破壞環(huán)境的進(jìn)程中均占有很大比重。過(guò)去100年以來(lái)的環(huán)境改變巨大（首要因素是化石燃料的使用增長(zhǎng)至20倍，同時(shí)傳統(tǒng)家庭能源使用增長(zhǎng)至3倍），足以體現(xiàn)當(dāng)今人類文明的是一支正在全球范圍內(nèi)崛起的生態(tài)和地球化學(xué)力量。15. Of all environme

36、ntal problems, the most threatening, and in many respects the most intractable, is global climate change. And the greenhouse gases most responsible for the danger of rapid climate change come largely from human endeavors too massive, widespread and central to the functioning of our societies to be e

37、asily altered: carbon dioxide (CO2) from deforestation and the combustion of fossil fuels; methane from rice paddies, cattle gusts and the exploitation of oil and natural gas; and nitrous oxides from fuel combustions and fertilizer use.在諸多環(huán)境問(wèn)題中，對(duì)人類威脅最大、在許多情況下卻又最讓人類無(wú)計(jì)可施的是全球氣候變化。而對(duì)氣候快速變化最起作用的溫室氣體主要來(lái)自人

38、類活動(dòng)，這些活動(dòng)規(guī)模之大、范圍之廣、對(duì)人類社會(huì)運(yùn)轉(zhuǎn)作用之大，都無(wú)法輕易改變。這些氣體包括：由于毀林和燃燒礦物燃料所造成的二氧化碳。由秸稈、牲畜糞便和使用石油天然氣所排放的甲烷，以及由于燃料燃燒和施肥所排放的氧化氮。16. The only other external cost that might match the devastating impact of global climate change is the risk of causing or aggravating large-scale military conflict. One such threat is the pot

39、ential for conflict over access to petroleum resources. Another threat is the link between nuclear energy and the spread of nuclear weapons. The issue is hardly less complex and controversial than the link between CO2 and climate; many analysts, including me, think it is threatening indeed.其他唯一能夠同全球

40、氣候變化所造成的災(zāi)難性影響相提并論的外化成本是日益惡化的大規(guī)模軍事沖突。其中潛在的威脅是為爭(zhēng)奪石油資源而引起的沖突。另一個(gè)威脅則來(lái)自核能和核武器擴(kuò)散之間的聯(lián)系，這種聯(lián)系的復(fù)雜性幾乎不亞于二氧化碳和氣候之間的關(guān)系。許多分析家（包括本人）均認(rèn)為這種關(guān)系十分危險(xiǎn)。Task 1 Getting information.1. Energy and human well-being have a two-sided connection: positive and negative能源和人類福祉有兩方面的聯(lián)系: 積極的和消極的The two problems related to energy use a

41、re: 1.inadequacy of energy sources and related technologies 2.high environmental and sociopolitical costs for energy use與能源使用有關(guān)的兩個(gè)問(wèn)題是: 1.能源和相關(guān)技術(shù)的不足2.能源使用的高環(huán)境和社會(huì)政治成本2. The two types of environmental costs are：external costs and internalized costs.兩種環(huán)境成本是外部成本和內(nèi)部化成本。3. The two highest environmental cos

42、ts man has to pay for the benefit of energy use are: 1) the impacts of energy technologies on public health and safety; 2)the threat to the global ecological system.人類必須為能源使用帶來(lái)的兩個(gè)最高的環(huán)境代價(jià)是: 1)能源技術(shù)對(duì)公眾健康和安全的影響;2)對(duì)全球生態(tài)系統(tǒng)的威脅。4. The most threatening impact of energy use on social politics is the potential

43、 for large-scale military conflict.能源使用對(duì)社會(huì)政治最具威脅性的影響是大規(guī)模軍事沖突的可能性Task 2 Answer the following questions.1. How does energy contribute to human well-being?能源是如何為人類福祉作出貢獻(xiàn)的?Energy contributes to human well-being by providing consumer services as well as serving as a necessary input to economic production

44、. 能源通過(guò)提供消費(fèi)者服務(wù)和作為經(jīng)濟(jì)生產(chǎn)的必要投入而有助于人類福祉。2. Which aspect of the two-sided connection between energy and human well-being does the author focus in this passage? Why?在這篇文章中，作者關(guān)注的是能源與人類幸福的雙邊關(guān)系的哪一方面?為什么?The negative aspect to the costs of energy. Because the increasingly high costs of energy detract from human

45、 wellbeing能源成本的負(fù)面影響。因?yàn)樵絹?lái)越高的能源成本降低了人類的福祉3. What do the costs of energy include?能源的成本包括什么?Money and other resources devoted to obtaining and exploiting it, and environmental and sociopolitical impacts金錢和其他資源用于獲取和利用它，以及環(huán)境和社會(huì)政治的影響4. Why does the author say that expensive energy is a permanent condition?

46、為什么作者說(shuō)昂貴的能源是永久的條件?1) The demand for energy, both general and per capita, is ever increasing. 2) With oil and gas resources depleting rapidly, alternative energy resources call for high monetary and technical inputs. 3) The more energy is used, the higher environmental costs it entails. 1)對(duì)能源的需求，無(wú)論是一

47、般的還是人均的，都在不斷增加。2)隨著石油和天然氣資源的迅速枯竭，替代能源需要高的貨幣和技術(shù)投入。3)使用的能源越多，所需要的環(huán)境成本就越高。5. Why is it hard to determine the impacts of energy technologies on public health and safety?為什么很難確定能源技術(shù)對(duì)公共健康和安全的影響?1) Views of how air pollution from fossil fuels affects public health vary widely. 2) It is uncertain how the us

48、e of nuclear energy affects public health. 3) The public health menace from traditional fuels is often neglected, but it is as dangerous as that from fossil fuels and nuclear fission1)關(guān)于礦物燃料的空氣污染如何影響公眾健康的觀點(diǎn)大相徑庭。2)使用核能如何影響公共衛(wèi)生尚不確定。3)傳統(tǒng)燃料對(duì)公共健康的威脅經(jīng)常被忽視，但它與化石燃料和核裂變一樣危險(xiǎn)Task 3 Choose the best answer to each question below. 1. In the article, the author focuses his discussion and analysis on C.