水文預(yù)報課程設(shè)計計算說明書

1、大連海洋大學(xué) 海洋與土木工程學(xué)院水文預(yù)報課程設(shè)計專業(yè)班級：水文與水資源工程專業(yè)姓 名：苗*學(xué) 號：14040*指導(dǎo)教師：黃*目錄1. 方案采用的技術(shù)途徑21.1蒸散發(fā)方案21.2產(chǎn)流方案21.3水源劃分21.4匯流方案21.5預(yù)報模式32. 流域概況33. 基本資料44. 流域產(chǎn)流方案制作步驟44.1流域蒸發(fā)量的推求44.2降雨徑流經(jīng)驗關(guān)系點的計算54.3產(chǎn)流方案調(diào)試194.4產(chǎn)流方案誤差評定195. 水源劃分216. 流域匯流方案制作步驟216.1制作地下徑流匯流方案216.2制作直接徑流匯流方案247. 流域預(yù)報方案校核及誤差評定307.1校核預(yù)報307.2次洪預(yù)報誤差評定308. 心得體

2、會：422題目:制作某水庫干流入庫站的流域預(yù)報模型方案1. 方案采用的技術(shù)途徑1.1蒸散發(fā)方案通過對大量的實測資料的檢驗分析，發(fā)現(xiàn)流域蒸發(fā)能力Ep與水面蒸發(fā)E0間可粗略概化為線性關(guān)系，即Ep=KC* E0。其中Kc為蒸發(fā)折算系數(shù)。同時流域的蒸發(fā)量采取三層蒸發(fā)的計算模式，將流域土壤分為上層、下層和深層。相關(guān)參數(shù)有：1 三層土壤含水量 WU，WL和WD2 三層土壤含水容量WUM，WLM和WDM3 蒸發(fā)擴散系數(shù) C1.2產(chǎn)流方案根據(jù)流域的自然地理情況和氣候條件,以及洪水流量過程線的分析,可知流域產(chǎn)流規(guī)律符合濕潤地區(qū)的蓄滿產(chǎn)流特征。采用蓄滿產(chǎn)流的降雨徑流相關(guān)圖形式表達方案。用三層蒸發(fā)模型計算蒸發(fā)。計算

3、時段為3小時。蓄滿產(chǎn)流方案可由流域蓄水容量曲線表達，曲線共有兩個參數(shù)：1 域蓄水容量WM；2 流域蓄水容量曲線指數(shù)b。 根據(jù) “水文預(yù)報”知識，流域蓄水容量曲線的參數(shù)確定后，可將流域蓄水容量曲線轉(zhuǎn)化為蓄滿產(chǎn)流的降雨徑流相關(guān)圖。因此，蓄滿產(chǎn)流的產(chǎn)流方案也可用蓄滿產(chǎn)流的降雨徑流相關(guān)圖表達。1.3水源劃分采用穩(wěn)定下滲率Fc作兩水源劃分。1.4匯流方案分析經(jīng)驗單位線作直接徑流匯流方案。采用線性水庫演算作地下徑流匯流方案。1.5預(yù)報模式流域平均降水量預(yù)報模式見圖1。蒸發(fā)模型： 產(chǎn)流方案水源劃分：地面徑流匯流計算(經(jīng)驗單位線匯流)地下徑流匯流計算(線性水庫匯流) 本次降雨的流域出口斷面流量圖1 預(yù)報模式示

4、意圖2. 流域概況某水庫入庫站流域控制面積為1067km2，干流河的長度約為93km。流域為低山丘陵區(qū)，上游部分覆蓋有部分的原始森林；中游部分為山間盆地，適宜農(nóng)作物生長，流域植被率高。地下水出流區(qū)常有泉水出露、涌水量較大者可達每秒數(shù)升左右。流域地區(qū)的氣候為溫暖濕潤，年降雨量為1700-1800mm之間?？膳袛嗔饔虻貐^(qū)為蓄滿產(chǎn)流模型的適用地。圖2 預(yù)報流域水系示意圖3. 基本資料水庫流域圖示意圖。研究流域兩場洪水實測資料，進行預(yù)報檢測。67701號洪水流量過程及時段雨量摘錄資料,表21。研究流域的14場洪水退水資料,表22。研究流域33場實測降雨徑流資料,表23。根據(jù)產(chǎn)流模型繪制降雨徑流關(guān)系曲線

5、。根據(jù)給出的時段徑流量，推算單位線。穩(wěn)定滲透系數(shù)fc=0.8。研究流域2場典型洪水徑流過程，表26。4. 流域產(chǎn)流方案制作步驟4.1流域蒸發(fā)量的推求流域蒸散發(fā)量計算是產(chǎn)流計算的重要內(nèi)容，特別是對于長時期的產(chǎn)流量估計，蒸發(fā)常是決定性因素。蒸散發(fā)決定了無雨期土壤含水量的消耗量，也影響降雨期的產(chǎn)流量。4.1.1 蒸發(fā)能力的確定流域蒸發(fā)能力Ep可以通過水面蒸發(fā)E0乘上蒸發(fā)折算系數(shù)Kc求得。4.1.2 蒸發(fā)量的推求流域時段蒸發(fā)量的推求采取三層蒸發(fā)計算模式，公式如下和本文圖1中均有列出。WU+P-R-EU>WUM，1=WU+P-R-EU-WUM，01+WL-EL>WLM，2=1+WL-EL-W

6、LM，02+WD-ED>WDM，3=2+WD-ED-WDM，01>0，WU=WUM，P+WU-EU-R2>0，WL=WLM，1+WL-EL3>0，WD=WDM，2+WD-ED計算模式需要的相應(yīng)參數(shù)取值如下表所示：表格 1 初始給定計算參數(shù)Kc參數(shù)預(yù)報檢測洪水WMWUMWLMBC1.012020600.430.1667701+1初始蓄水系數(shù)WWUWLWD450540注：WM=WUM+WLM+WDM4.2降雨徑流經(jīng)驗關(guān)系點的計算在以下的計算過程中，涉及到降雨時間的步驟，為了計算簡潔，采用的都是降雨時段。4.2.1退水曲線制作根據(jù)收集的14場退水資料制作退水曲線。據(jù)表22的1

7、4場退水資料點繪Qtt退水線、觀察流域退水規(guī)律。圖3 14場洪水退水曲線1 據(jù)表3的退水資料點繪QtQt+1退水線圖、在圖上定出一條標準QtQt+1地下水退根據(jù)表22的退水資料點繪QtQt+1退水線圖、在圖上定出一條標準QtQt+1地下水退水線（QtQt+1外包線）；QtQt+1退水線計算過程見表27。圖4 QtQt+1退水線圖2 由標準QtQt+1地下水退水線分析求解地下徑流消退系數(shù)Cg（本流域0.98 < Cg < 0.99 ）；51表2 計算地下徑流消退系數(shù)Cg 3 根據(jù)表22的退水資料點繪QtQt+1退水線圖、在圖上定出一條QtQt+1流域平均退水線。表3 流域平均退水曲線

8、表4 Qt初始設(shè)置為200時流域平均退水曲線Qt流域平均退水曲線QtQt+10200169.65057873169.6505787144.73929146144.7392914124.29171099124.2917109107.508011912107.508011993.731685041593.7316850482.423857051882.4238570573.142212142173.1422121465.52369052465.523690559.270286882759.2702868854.137393813054.1373938149.924233613349.9242336

9、146.466004773646.4660047743.627435583943.6274355841.297492894241.2974928939.385038894539.3850388937.815266274837.8152662736.526771955136.5267719535.469155345435.4691553434.601046825734.6010468233.888489556033.8884895533.30361122表5 Qt地下水退水曲線12019.3077834118.800570512318.800570518.3066820212618.306682

10、0217.8257679212917.8257679217.3574873613217.3574873616.9015084813516.9015084816.457508113816.457508116.0251715514116.0251715515.6041924214415.6041924215.1942723714715.1942723714.7951208515014.7951208514.4064549915314.4064549914.0279993415614.0279993413.6594856615913.6594856613.3006527916213.30065279

11、12.9512464116512.9512464112.6110188916812.6110188912.279729117112.279729111.9571422517411.9571422511.6430297117711.6430297111.3371688718011.3371688711.0393429518311.0393429510.7493408818610.7493408810.4669571318910.4669571310.1919915519210.191991559.9242492911959.9242492919.6635405821989.6635405829.

12、4096806562019.4096806569.1624895972049.1624895978.9217922142078.9217922148.6874179192108.6874179198.4592006062138.4592006068.2369785312168.2369785318.02059422198.02059427.8098942572227.8098942577.6047293742257.6047293747.4049541452287.4049541457.2104269842317.2104269847.0210100262347.0210100266.8365

13、690272376.8365690276.6569732682406.6569732686.4820954652436.4820954656.311811679Qt地下水退水曲線QtQt+105654.52888743354.5288874353.09642079653.0964207951.70158486951.7015848650.343391091250.3433910949.020876881549.0208768847.733104951847.7331049546.479162622146.4791626245.258161182445.2581611844.0692352927

14、44.0692352942.911542333042.9115423341.784261813341.7842618140.686594793640.6865947939.617763353939.6177633538.577009964238.5770099637.563597034537.5635970336.576806324836.5768063235.615938475135.6159384734.680312495434.6803124933.769265285733.7692652832.882151166032.8821511632.018341426332.018341423

15、1.177223836631.1772238330.35820236930.358202329.560696357229.5606963528.784140797528.7841407928.027985247828.0279852427.29169388127.291693826.574744638426.5747446325.876629628725.8766296225.196854019025.1968540124.5349369324.53493623.89040659623.890406523.26280879923.262808722.651697810222.651697822

16、.0566407210522.0566407221.477215710821.477215720.913012111120.913012120.3636300511420.3636300519.828680211719.82868023482.5530937832.4860243493512.4860243492.420716823542.420716822.3571249113572.3571249112.2952035533602.2952035532.2349088613632.2349088612.1761981033662.1761981032.1190296683692.11902

17、96682.0633630413722.0633630412.0091587683752.0091587681.9563784343781.9563784341.9049846333811.9049846331.854940943841.854940941.8062118883871.8062118881.7587629423901.7587629421.7125604743931.7125604741.6675717383961.6675717381.623764853991.623764851.5811087634021.5811087631.5395732464051.539573246

18、1.4991288624081.4991288621.4597469464111.4597469461.4213995884141.4213995881.384059614171.384059611.3477005484201.3477005481.3122966344231.3122966341.2778227764261.2778227761.2442545414291.2442545411.211568144321.211568141.1797404064351.1797404061.1487487834381.1487487831.11857130519.307783412466.31

19、18116796.1460012262496.1460012265.9845465912525.9845465915.8273333482555.8273333485.6742500762585.6742500765.5251882812615.5251882815.380042322645.380042325.2387093242675.2387093245.1010891272705.1010891274.9670841942734.9670841944.8365995532764.8365995534.7095427262794.7095427264.5858236642824.5858

20、236644.4653546872854.4653546874.3480504132884.3480504134.2338277072914.2338277074.1226056162944.1226056164.0143053152974.0143053153.9088500483003.9088500483.8061650773033.8061650773.7061776273063.7061776273.6088168343093.6088168343.5140136953123.5140136953.4217010233153.4217010233.3318133923183.3318

21、133923.2442870973213.2442870973.1590601073243.1590601073.0760720183273.0760720182.9952640153302.9952640152.9165788283332.9165788282.839960693362.839960692.76535533392.76535532.6927097843422.6927097842.6219726563452.6219726562.553093783圖5 平均退水曲線圖6 退水徑流深4.2.2次洪量劃分計算平割法計算本場洪水的R實。 1 根據(jù)表21的次洪流量資料點繪67701號

22、洪水流量過程線。2 洪水流量過程線上分割后期洪水徑流（利用流域平均退水關(guān)系線分割）。圖7 67701號洪水流量過程線及徑流分割計算相應(yīng)次洪水的徑流總量R實。利用平割法計算徑流深R0的計算式為：R0=i=1n-13.6Qit/A利用蓄泄關(guān)系法計算徑流深R0的計算式為：R0=3.6ti=2n-1Qi+(Q1+Qn)/A+Re末-Re初直接徑流終止點的時距N的公式：N=0.84F0.2F=1067km2直接徑流終止點可用流域地下水退水曲線來確定：使退水曲線與流量過程線退水尾部重合，而流量過程與退水曲線的分叉點即視為直接徑流終止點（如圖7所示），計算值見表6。表6 計算N值時段流量3133738N81

23、.30615計算直接徑流終止點在實際工作中也采用經(jīng)驗方法，即通過對實測資料的分析后，確定洪峰時間到直接徑流終止點的時距N，并認為同一流域的N值為常數(shù)（見表7）。表7 從洪峰流量到退水過程t日期時間流量07101018900311700314450317300320350323270322063517038146311126314116317102320953238032703565.753861.531157.253145331750.7532048.532346.2532443542.753841.531140.0531439317382037822336235534833113214311

24、730.752030.52330.25230根據(jù)斜線分割法計算出的N值為81.30615，根據(jù)經(jīng)驗方法計算出來的N值為82，存在誤差較小，在允許范圍內(nèi)，可進行下一步計算。圖8 Q0Re關(guān)系示意圖表8tQ0Re007850.18275538978100.72643568645151.25361469333201.79485180624252.30094365321302.84218076618353.39044693315403.91762593912454.39560157212504.92980963212555.520250119表9 計算徑流深R0QRe130.92324383.6097

25、蓄泄關(guān)系法計算R074.96953404平割法計算R072.06545平割法計算地表徑流63.28982地下徑流11.679714.2.3降雨產(chǎn)流量計算根據(jù)給定的初始參數(shù)（表21），點繪制作流域蓄水容量曲線。計算公式為：=1-（1-WMWMM)bWM=WMM1+ba=WMM1-(1-WWM)1/(1+b)W=WM1-(1-aWMM)b+1根據(jù)流域蓄滿產(chǎn)流的各個公式和已給定的初始參數(shù)，構(gòu)建初始降雨產(chǎn)流量的計算模型,并填寫表24(降雨徑流關(guān)系節(jié)點表),結(jié)合流域蓄水容量曲線點繪降雨徑流關(guān)系示意圖。表10 三層蒸發(fā)模型表11 包氣帶蓄水容量曲線WM、0050.012635100.025488150.0

26、38569200.051891250.065466300.079307350.09343400.107851450.122587500.137659550.153089600.1689650.185121700.201781750.218916800.236564850.25477900.273586950.2930711000.3132951050.334341110圖9 包氣帶容量曲線0.3563091150.3793191200.4035191250.4290951300.456291350.4854181400.5169161450.5514031500.5898221550.6337

27、281600.686041650.7536451700.866054表12降雨徑流關(guān)節(jié)點W020406080100120A020.5412942.3660725365.916692.00862122.582171.6PERRRRRRR0000.6110097850.9823751.4557742.147975550.0314980.300641.2973380572.049663.0123064.43213110100.1267110.6699582.0607700093.2043594.6736656.86219515150.2867561.1093332.9032124764.449188

28、6.4444119.45009120200.5128041.6202223.8267081365.7871138.32969212.2108925250.8060882.2041664.8334521057.22138110.3353915.1644930301.1679072.8628065.9258114968.75557412.4682918.3387435351.5996293.5978847.10634866110.3936714.7363721.7767640402.1027024.4112628.37784901912.1401117.1491425.5591845452.678

29、6615.304939.74335474113.999919.718253050503.3291326.28102711.2062059415.9787522.458323555554.0558477.34185512.7700916518.0832425.388584060604.8606558.489914.4391138320.3210428.535734565655.7455319.72786516.217868922.701331.940495070706.71259711.0586918.1115536125.2351435.676715575757.76413512.485612

30、0.1261052427.93642406080808.90261214.0121722.2683919630.823194565858510.130715.6423224.5464789633.920145070909011.4513317.3804626.9700137537.2645575959512.8676819.2315529.5508093740.91815608010010014.3832721.2012532.303778145.0444658510510516.00223.2960535.2485426850709011011017.7282225.5235538.4125

31、256255759511511519.5668227.8927741.83790969608010012012021.5233930.4146345.60264924658510512512523.604333.1027850709011013013025.8170335.9748855759511513513528.1704239.05497608010012014014030.6751542.37859658510512514514533.3445446.00606709011013015015036.195750.08303759511513515515539.2518355801001

32、2014016016042.54681608510512514516516546.13702659011013015017017050.14987709511513515517517555751001201401601801806080105125145165185圖10 降雨徑流關(guān)系示意圖W=0 20 40 60 80 100 1204.3產(chǎn)流方案調(diào)試應(yīng)用實測數(shù)據(jù)資料率定模型參數(shù)Kc和 B共需要三組實測數(shù)據(jù)來率定模型的兩個參數(shù)。其一為表1中指定的67701號洪水實測數(shù)據(jù)，同時根據(jù)表23中給出的實測降雨產(chǎn)流數(shù)據(jù)，各組任選其2，共三組。其中67701號洪水的實測凈流總量R實已經(jīng)在4.2.2步驟中

33、求取完成。用初始降雨徑流計算模型計算總徑流量與實測徑流量對比，如果差異較大，則相應(yīng)調(diào)整參數(shù)Kc和 B的值。 參數(shù)Kc的優(yōu)選范圍:0.90-1.30；參數(shù)B的優(yōu)選范圍:0.4-0.44在三層蒸發(fā)模型中，通過調(diào)整Kc取值為1，B的值為0.43。4.4產(chǎn)流方案誤差評定優(yōu)選原則：計算的2年資料的Kc和B值應(yīng)相同并使得2年內(nèi)每年的年徑流相對誤差盡可能不超過20。絕對誤差： 相對誤差：表13 產(chǎn)流方案誤差評定編號洪號PEW0R實R算檢驗164529115.86967.464.8-2.63.86%合格26460229.3117.124.526.41.97.76%合格36462295.7102.38878-1

34、011.36%合格46551025.496.511.81.9-9.983.90%不合格56552555.5100.136.335.6-0.71.93%合格66562617.511512.312.50.21.63%合格76640835.29717.412.2-5.229.89%不合格86762325.960.37.30-7.3100.00%不合格97040161.7107.749.149.40.30.61%合格107041723.910513.28.9-4.332.58%不合格117041815.510511.90.5-11.495.80%不合格127042050.5109.542.340-2.

35、35.44%合格137050638.9112.434.831.3-3.510.06%合格147052444.9118.144.743-1.73.80%合格157080738.762.810.60-10.6100.00%不合格167151174.160.930.115-15.150.17%不合格177191243.192.118.715.2-3.518.72%合格187242935110.225.225.200.00%合格197250766.2109.95756.1-0.91.58%合格207281987.274.242.441.4-12.36%合格2172101216.1845.30-5.31

36、00.00%不合格2272110975.671.428.827-1.86.25%合格237352013.611510.78.6-2.119.63%合格247461460.19029.530.10.62.03%合格257470438.2113.130.931.30.41.29%合格267491340.585.217.65.7-11.967.61%不合格277550425.911221.317.9-3.415.96%合格287560519.9108.210.38.1-2.221.36%不合格297560774.511166.165.5-0.60.91%合格307580850.5100.831.73

37、1.3-0.41.26%合格3175100445.3101.327.326.6-0.72.56%合格3275100669.3115.565.664.8-0.81.22%合格337652715.599.510.10-10.1100.00%不合格評定結(jié)果：合格率為66.7% 不合格率為33.3%5. 水源劃分本方案采用穩(wěn)定下滲率fc=0.8作兩水源劃分計算,供相應(yīng)洪號的直接徑流匯流計算使用。根據(jù)67701號洪水原始資料進行計算：表14 調(diào)整FC 計算RGFcRG時段tPER產(chǎn)流面積R/PE0.80.780.80.78136.631.0795922620.1628344290.3908030.381

38、0325630.3908030.3810332350.0413.146178880.2627134070.6305120.6147493720.6305120.6147493351.3226.241707060.51133491.2272041.1965236661.2272041.1965244213.6811.953849980.8738194431.3981111.3631583311.3981111.363158519.59.510.80.780.80.78635.325.3212.42.342.42.34730.810.8112.42.340.812.34836.156.1512.4

39、2.342.42.3410.0566311.355466. 流域匯流方案制作步驟6.1制作地下徑流匯流方案采用線性水庫演算法作地下徑流匯流方案。取 ；Cg是流域地下水退水系數(shù),可由流域地下水退水曲線分析。取為0,可用水源劃分計算的演算出次洪地下徑流過程。 通過計算：Kg=37.5642表15 計算Rg及地表徑流Rs時段tKkg1-KkgURg,tQg,tQg,t+1RRs130.9232030.07679798.79629630.38103256302.8909792181.0795922620.698559699230.9232030.07679798.79629630.6147493722

40、.8909797.33320261413.1461788812.53142951330.9232030.07679798.79629631.1965236667.33320315.8483297726.2417070625.04518339420.9481380.051862148.19444441.36315833115.8483325.5030932911.9538499810.59069165510.9737290.026271296.38888890.7825.5030930.906600749.58.72630.9232030.07679798.79629632.3430.90664

41、6.287180675.322.98730.9232030.07679798.79629632.3446.2871860.486583760.810830.9232030.07679798.79629632.3460.4865873.595520416.153.81930.9232030.07679798.7962963073.5955267.94363181030.9232030.07679798.7962963067.9436362.725789241130.9232030.07679798.7962963062.7257957.908659441230.9232030.07679798.

42、7962963057.9086653.461469031330.9232030.07679798.7962963053.4614749.355807891430.9232030.07679798.7962963049.3558145.565447731530.9232030.07679798.7962963045.5654542.066174491630.9232030.07679798.7962963042.0661738.835633681730.9232030.07679798.7962963038.8356335.853187541830.9232030.07679798.796296

43、3035.8531933.099783241930.9232030.07679798.7962963033.0997830.5578311320120.7245450.27545524.69907407030.5578322.1405092721120.7245450.27545524.69907407022.1405116.041784822120.7245450.27545524.69907407016.0417811.6229873623120.7245450.27545524.69907407011.622998.42137186724120.7245450.27545524.6990740708.4213726.10165888725120.7245450.27545524.6990740706.1016594.42092354626120.7245450.27545524.6990740704.4209243.20315595527120.7245450.27545524.6990740703.2031562.32082911328120.7245450.27545524.6990740702.3208291.68154402929120.7