畢業(yè)設(shè)計外文資料與譯文

1、大連東軟信息學(xué)院高等教育自學(xué)考試畢業(yè)設(shè)計（論文）外文資料及譯文姓 名 ： 張校輝 準(zhǔn)考證號 ： 020312202083 專 業(yè) ： 項目管理 助學(xué)單位 ： 大連東軟信息學(xué)院繼續(xù)教育學(xué)院 大連東軟信息學(xué)院Dalian Neusoft University of Information外文資料和譯文格式要求一、裝訂要求1、外文資料原文（復(fù)印或打印）在前、譯文在后、最后為指導(dǎo)教師評定成績.2、譯文必須采用計算機(jī)輸入、打印.3、A4幅面打印，于左側(cè)裝訂。二、撰寫要求1、外文文獻(xiàn)內(nèi)容與所選課題相關(guān)。2、譯文漢字字?jǐn)?shù)不少于3000字。三、格式要求1、譯文字號:中文小四號宋體,英文小四號“Times Ne

2、w Roman”字型，全文統(tǒng)一，首行縮進(jìn)2個中文字符,1.5倍行距。2、譯文頁碼：頁碼用阿拉伯?dāng)?shù)字連續(xù)編頁，字體采用“Times New Roman”字體，字號小五，頁底居中。3、譯文頁眉：眉體使用單線，頁眉說明五號宋體,居中“大連東軟信息學(xué)院高等教育自學(xué)考試畢業(yè)設(shè)計（論文）譯文".Project management quality and the value of flexible strategies Construction strategies for competitive bidding and operations are used to avoid the cons

3、equences of poor schedule performance such as delay penalties. Flexible strategies in the form of options can increase project value if uncertain conditions cannot be adequately forecast before operations begin。 However, project management purpose fully manipulates the project performance that drive

4、s the use of options and thereby the value added by options. Therefore project management quality may influence option values。 Seeks to address this question.Design/methodology/approach This research investigates the interaction of project management and option value by operationalizing a common use

5、 of real options in construction and valuing the option with different levels of project management quality。 A simple but realistic dynamic simulation model of a project is described and exercised to reveal some impacts of project management on option value.Findings The results support a hypothesis

6、that increased project management quality decreases option value and that real options in managing construction projects can be explained with real options theory. The model structure suggests causal explanations that are consistent with real options theory.Originality/value The results suggest that

7、 practising managers can significantly increase project value by structuring managerial flexibility and thereby improving their evaluation, development, and use of flexibility。 However, ignoring the multiple means of managing uncertainty that are often available can distort valuation。 Results also s

8、uggest that researchers of strategic flexibility in projects should consider multiple forms of uncertainty in modeling options. Increasing the number of available options or the effectiveness of options in a multiple-option environment can decrease individual option values。Keywords Project managemen

9、t, Risk management, Management strategy， Quality Paper type Research paperIntroduction Accurately valuing construction operations is critical for developing competitiveproposals for construction services and meeting performance objectives such as profit and cash flow。 This is difficult， partially be

10、cause conditions can evolve far from those assumed by project planners and managers before operations begin. These uncertain future scenarios can have large impacts on project behavior and performance that threaten meeting performance targets。 Based on a study of 60 large construction projects， Mill

11、er and Floricel (2000） describe flexibility and generativity as two approaches for successfully addressing uncertain future project conditions。 Flexibility and generativity are primarily distinguished by whether the risk management occurs while the uncertain conditions evolve （generativity) or prece

12、des the uncertain processes (flexibility）. Generativity focuses on responding to risk in “real time”, after conditions are clear enough to identify effective decisions and actions. Project management during operations is one form of generativity that can mitigate risk by adjusting individual constru

13、ction processes frequently as conditions change. In contrast, flexibility builds uncertainty management into project structures such as partner alliances， contracts， and strategies。 Project managers use flexible project strategies to plan for and mitigate risk by proactively manipulating how externa

14、l uncertainties such as weather and labor availability impact performance， often with relatively few project-level adjustments。 Due to their focus on high-level drivers of performance and their ability to adapt, flexible project strategies can strongly influence performance. Therefore， when estimati

15、ng, project value planners need to include the economic value of flexibility in project strategies。 Increased pressure to complete projects faster， cheaper， and better and competition from other firms have increased the need for project strategies and management that can effectively manage project r

16、isk. Miller and Floricel (2000） suggest that in successful projects, flexibility and generativity interact to prepare for and subsequently manage project risks. To design， assess， and implement effective strategies and policies, project planners and managers need to understand how flexibility in str

17、ategies and project management interact to impact value。 Practising planners and mangers may have tacit and intuitive knowledge of these interactions, but explicit and testable models are needed to improve project strategies and policies。 The current work provides an initial investigation of the imp

18、acts of project management quality on the value of flexibility in project strategies。 Prior research of strategic construction project planning investigates and compares procurement strategies. Examples include investigation and development of the A t B （cost t time） bidding strategy by El-Rayes (20

19、01), Shen et al. (1999), and Herbsman (1995）， the comparison of competitive and negotiated bidding by Zelasko and Schexnayder （2003) and demonstration of advantages of a design, bid， build strategy （Bender， 2003） and designbuildoperatetransfer organizations (Ritchie， 2001）. But these strategies are

20、irreversibly chosen prior to procurement and do not include flexibility to respond to changing project conditions during operations。 Other research describes flexible strategies but do not operationalize or value them (e.g。 Kolltveit et al。， 2004)。 One exception is Cui et al.'s (2004) study of w

21、arranty options， which is based on the same underlying theory as the current work but is applied to product performance from an owner's perspective. The current work focuses on operational flexibility from a contractors perspective。 Challenges of valuing flexibility in construction projects Trad

22、itionally the economic value of a project is based on a discounted cash flow analysis of point estimates of project incomes and costs. Previous research (e。g. Dixit and Pindyck， 1994; Trigeorgis, 1995） has demonstrated that this approach fails to capture the value of flexibility in project strategie

23、s and therefore can undervalue projects. Project values can be more accurately estimated by adding the value of flexibility in project strategies to the value estimated with discounted cash flows （Trigeorgis， 1993a）. Real options theory structures flexibility in strategies for managing real assets a

24、s a right without an obligation to change the strategy depending on how uncertainty resolves (Amram and Kulatilaka, 1999a, b). Miller and Lessard （2000）, Ford and Ceylan （2002), Kemna (1993), Ford and Sobek （2005) and others describe the application of real options to construction and other types of

25、 development projects. Real options valuation models are capable of valuing flexibility in many circumstances, including some in construction （e.g. Zhao et al., 2004; Zhao and Tseng, 2003; Ford et al., 2002）. However， most existing real options valuation models (e.g。 Brealey and Myers, 2000; Trigeor

26、gis, 1993b， 1995; Dixit and Pindyck， 1994; Kemna and Vorst, 1990) may be unable to estimate accurately the value of the flexibility when project management is also used to manage risk because of inconsistencies between model assumptions and construction project practice1. Particularly relevant to th

27、e current work is the inability of most real options valuation models to explicitly reflect project management processes (e.g。 resource allocation and forecasting completion dates) and different levels of project management quality that are critical to construction project behavior and performance。T

28、he problem of the impacts of project management quality on the value of flexible strategies is widespread because project managers commonly use many forms of flexibility that can be structured as real options。 Examples include that project managers often hold options to use overtime if expected comp

29、letion dates exceed deadlines, replace labor with equipment to reduce costs, and upgrade to new technologies to improve productivity。 In all these cases the project managers flexibility impacts project performance and value. Data collected by one of the authors from the management of large construct

30、ion projects by a major energy firm identified several exemplary cases from practice (Johnson et al., 2006）。 As an example， one project in an isolated location required a special large piece of equipment that could only be manufactured by a single firm. The manufacturing completion time and therefor

31、e the arrival date at the site were uncertain if the equipment was moved by sea, the traditional and lower cost method. But sea delivery was only possible during a short weather window。 Missing the weather window would delay the project a year and incur very large additional costs. Delivery by air w

32、ould avoid the weather window problem, but was more expensive. Project mangers had the flexibility to change their delivery strategy from sea to air to avoid project delays， but the flexibility was not free to obtain (reserve the airlift) or use (switch to airlift and delivery by air). The value of

33、the flexibility in these examples depends on several factors, including the quality of the project management。 In the current work one specific case is used to investigate in more depth the relationship between project management and the value of flexible strategies。Consider a concrete contractor wh

34、o is developing an operations strategy as part of preparing bids on a high-rise building project as a more detailed example of the challenges in valuing flexibility in project strategies. The project has three similar phases that will occur simultaneously but will be bid separately. The general cont

35、ractor has set aggressive deadlines and will impose large financial penalties for completing any phase late。 The delay penalties are large compared to the differences in the direct costs of concrete operations using different strategies and profit, so avoiding delay penalties is critical. From exper

36、ience the contractor knows that formwork operations will likely control productivity and thereby schedule performance. That productivity is impacted by the formwork strategy chosen， but also by numerous factors beyond the contractors control, such as weather.To develop a strategy the contractor init

37、ially considers using a traditional approach to formwork in each phase， building and assembling individual formwork pieces for each concrete pour. Although reliable, this process has limited productivity and therefore might complete concrete operations after the deadline and incur large delay penalt

38、ies. The contractor could bid based on this basic strategy， hope that the phases are lucky in how uncertain factors impact productivity, and that the three phases finish by the deadline。 But， even if successful on the current project, over many projects the large delay penalties incurred using this

39、strategy will likely absorb any savings。 To include delay penalties the contractor could add the expected cost of delay penalties over many projects to the bid based on this basic strategy. However, this would require that the contractor submit a relatively high bid, and significantly reduce the lik

40、elihood of being awarded the project. To be competitive the contractor needs a strategy that avoids delay penalties.To avoid delay penalties the contractor considers a second strategy in which the firm rents a proprietary formwork system that allows higher productivity but requires rental costs and

41、an additional expensive mobilization operation before the system can be used. The increased productivity would accelerate concrete operations and reduce durations. The contractor estimates that the proprietary formwork system would largely avoid （but not eliminate） the threat of missing the deadline

42、 and paying delay penalties。 Although this strategy can improve schedule performance over many projects and greatly reduce the expected delay penalties, the rent and mobilization costs might make the contractors bid too high to be competitive. The contractor needs a strategy that only uses the propr

43、ietary formwork system when it is needed to avoid delay penalties and saves rent and mobilization costs when the proprietary system is not needed.Neither the basic or proprietary formwork strategy alone provide the basis for a competitive bid。 Therefore the contractor considers a third， flexible str

44、ategy that uses an option to manage schedule risk。 The flexible strategy starts each phase with traditional formwork （the basic strategy） and rents the proprietary formwork system only if traditional formwork operations are forecasted to miss the deadline。 This strategy saves the rent and mobilizati

45、on costs if the proprietary system is not needed but uses the proprietary system if needed to avoid delay penalties. By applying this strategy over many projects （ceteris paribus) the contractor can constrain costs and still complete operations by their deadlines the majority of the time. The contra

46、ctor would pay the owner of the proprietary formwork system a fee at the beginning of each contract to keep the formwork system available to rent。 Because the decision whether to rent the proprietary formwork or not must be made well before actual project completion to avoid penalties, each phase ma

47、nager would use a forecasted completion date as a signal of whether to rent the proprietary formwork。 The value added by the flexibility in this strategy across the three phases and over many similar projects when compared to the basic strategy could be used to pay the fee to the proprietary formwor

48、k owner, reduce bids compared to those with the basic strategy， or increase profits. Therefore， estimating the value of the flexibility is critical for the contractor。The flexibility in the strategy can be valued with traditional real option valuation models with additional detail and if the applica

49、tion issues described above can be resolved. However， the contractor is concerned about the impact of project management on the value added by strategic flexibility。 Because of the geographic distance between the project phases the concrete contractor will have a different person manage each phase.

50、The three managers being considered are primarily distinguished by their experience in allocating resources to concrete operations. The contractor considers this experience to reflect the quality of project management. Resource allocation policies can have large impacts on project schedule performan

51、ce (Joglekar and Ford, 2005）， and therefore on completion dates relative to deadlines and delay penalties。 Understanding the impacts （if any） of resource allocation experience on the value of the flexibility in the operations strategy is important to valuing the phases， the project， and pricing the

52、contractor's bids。 If project management impacts the value of the flexible strategy the bids for each phase should differ and reflect those impacts。 How do differences in management impact the value of strategic flexibility？ Despite the ubiquitous use of flexibility in project planning and manag

53、ement (Miller and Lessard, 2000） no investigations are known to address the impact of project management on the value of strategic flexibility. This lack may be due to the challenges of operationalizing strategic flexibility theories (e。g。 real options) for development project practice and the immat

54、urity of valuation models for those contexts. Regardless， fundamental issues concerning whether project management-flexibility impacts can be large enough to justify additional research and the direction of impacts remain open。 The current work provides a preliminary investigation of the impacts of

55、project management quality on the value of strategic flexibility, using the example above as a test case.項目質(zhì)量管理以及靈活戰(zhàn)略的價值在投標(biāo)操作上為了避免時間安排上的失誤帶來嚴(yán)重的后果，如誤期的罰款，進(jìn)行投標(biāo)策略是有必要的。如果這些不確定的條件在項目開始之前不能夠充分的預(yù)測，那么柔性戰(zhàn)略形式的選擇可以增加項目的價值。然而，項目管理的目的是完全掌握項目執(zhí)行的情況,使得利用選擇的權(quán)力為項目增加價值。因此項目管理質(zhì)量會影響到其選擇帶來的價值。本文研究的目的就是尋求解決這一問題的方案。設(shè)計/辦法/

56、方法這項研究通過一個正在實施建設(shè)的共同使用的實物期權(quán)和估計選擇不同層次的項目管理質(zhì)量的價值來調(diào)查項目管理和選擇價值的影響。一個簡單的,但現(xiàn)實動態(tài)項目仿真模型，是用來描述和進(jìn)行揭露一些在期權(quán)方面影響項目管理的因素.結(jié)果結(jié)果需要一個假設(shè)來支持，就是提高項目管理質(zhì)量，下降選擇價值.在項目管理建造過程可以用實際選擇理論來進(jìn)行解析。該模型結(jié)構(gòu)表明因果關(guān)系的解釋是一致的實物期權(quán)理論。創(chuàng)新/價值結(jié)果表明，項目經(jīng)理可以大大提高項目價值管理上的靈活性,從而改善他們的評價，發(fā)展和使用的靈活性。由于忽略了多種管理手段的不確定性,往往得出的數(shù)據(jù)歪曲了估價.結(jié)果還表明，研究人員在項目戰(zhàn)略靈活性上應(yīng)考慮多種形式的不確定性

57、建模選項。在多選擇環(huán)境增加可用選項或選擇的有效性可以減少個人的選擇價值觀。關(guān)鍵詞：項目管理,風(fēng)險管理，戰(zhàn)略管理，質(zhì)量緒論：為建筑服務(wù)的發(fā)展提供競爭性建議以及滿足性能目標(biāo)，對準(zhǔn)確地估價業(yè)務(wù)建設(shè)是至關(guān)重要的,如利潤和現(xiàn)金流量。要辦到這一點是比較困難的，其中部分原因是在行動開始之前，這些條件會逐步遠(yuǎn)離那些承擔(dān)的項目規(guī)劃人員和管理人員，這些不能確定的未來的情形對項目的行為和運(yùn)作將會有很大的影響，而且會直接威脅到業(yè)績目標(biāo)。據(jù)調(diào)查研究60個大型的建筑項目中，米勒和佛羅里寇（2000)對靈活性及普遍性的描述，是兩個比較接近作為成功處理未來不確定的項目條件的方法。靈活性和普遍性主要區(qū)別是風(fēng)險管理工程是否發(fā)生在

58、工程施工過程或者之前的不確定建筑管理中。靈活性和普遍性的主要區(qū)別在于普遍性側(cè)重于應(yīng)對風(fēng)險的“實時”，在條件很清楚足以識別出有效的行動和決定的時候。在操作過程中的項目管理師組成普遍性的一部分，當(dāng)條件變化時調(diào)整私自建設(shè)部分來降低風(fēng)險。相反,在項目建造中靈活的建立不確定性管理，如合作伙伴的聯(lián)盟，合同和戰(zhàn)略.項目經(jīng)理使用靈活的戰(zhàn)略，通過如何主動操縱外部的不確定因素來計劃項目，降低項目的風(fēng)險，如天氣和勞動力的供應(yīng)影響施工，在通常情況下，通過調(diào)整小數(shù)與其相關(guān)的項目來適應(yīng)這些變化。由于他們著眼于高級別操控者的表現(xiàn)和他們的適應(yīng)能力,靈活的項目戰(zhàn)略能對他們的運(yùn)作產(chǎn)生強(qiáng)烈的影響。因此，當(dāng)估算的時候,項目價值規(guī)劃者必須包括經(jīng)濟(jì)價值在項目的戰(zhàn)略中靈活性.為了更快，更好，更低價的完成項目以及其他公司的競爭，使得公司的壓力越來越大。增加了對項目戰(zhàn)略和項目管理的必要性，以便能夠有效的管理項目的風(fēng)險.米勒和佛羅里度 ( 2000年）表明，在成功的項目，靈活性和普遍性相