各組織應(yīng)該警惕亞洲私人部門(mén)債務(wù)飆升

1、August can be a perilous month for investors. It is a month when there is little volume or liquidity in financial markets and this s August appears to be an especially treacherous one. 8月對(duì)投資者而言可能是一個(gè)危險(xiǎn)的月份。8月的 金融市場(chǎng)交易量或流動(dòng)性非常低，今年的8月看起 來(lái)尤其兇險(xiǎn)。 Among the most vulnerable perhaps surprisingly are emerging As

2、ian markets, where aggregate private sector debt has been building up. That is because th e combination of high leverage and lack of liquidity is not a happy one when investors are feeling nervous. 有些人也許想不到，亞洲新興市場(chǎng)（那里的私人 部 門(mén)總債務(wù)一直在攀升）現(xiàn)在屬于最脆弱的市場(chǎng)。 原因在于，在投資者正感到緊張之際，高杠桿和 流動(dòng)性匱乏的組合可不是一個(gè)令人樂(lè)觀的組合。 This summer,

3、 the markets have been hit by a bout of fear from a co mbination of the prospect of a world with less easy money and more dangerous gunmen. Since their July peaks, emerging market debt and currencies have weakened. 今年夏季，市場(chǎng)受到 一波恐慌情緒的沖擊，原因是人們擔(dān)心世界上的 寬松貨幣可能會(huì)減少，而危險(xiǎn)的投機(jī)者有所增多。 自7月份見(jiàn)頂以來(lái)，新興市場(chǎng)債市和匯率已經(jīng)走低。 Today,

4、 as investors shif t away from their quest for yield, and outflows from US junk bond funds last week reached a record $11.4bn, it seems timely to ask how badly the emerging markets of Asia will be affected and how much they should be affected. 如今， 隨著投資者逐漸停止對(duì)收益的追逐，美國(guó)垃圾債 基金的贖回額上上周達(dá)到 創(chuàng)紀(jì)錄的114億美元，似乎是時(shí)候問(wèn)問(wèn)

5、亞洲新興市 場(chǎng)即將以及應(yīng)該會(huì)受到多么嚴(yán)重的影響了。 While leverage levels have dropped in developed markets since the financial crisis, the y have gone the other way across the Pacific. The total stock of debt has more than doubled to $21tn in emerging Asia in the past five years, JPMorgan notes. Asian debt is back to levels

6、 last seen during the regions financial crisis of 1997, according to data from Gavekal Dragonomics, a research boutique. 自 本次金融危機(jī)以來(lái)，發(fā)達(dá)市場(chǎng)的杠桿水平有所下 降，但太平洋對(duì)岸的情形正好相反。摩根大通 (JPMorgan)指出，過(guò)去5年亞洲新興市場(chǎng)債務(wù)總存 量增加了一倍多，至21萬(wàn)億 美元。研究機(jī)構(gòu)龍洲經(jīng)訊(GaveKal Dragonomics) 的數(shù)據(jù)顯示，亞洲債務(wù)規(guī)?；氐搅?997年亞洲金 融危機(jī)期間的水平。 Heavy burden 沉重負(fù)擔(dān) Debt le

7、vels matter because they have an influen ce on future growth and the more expensive the debt, the heavier the burden on borrowers. 債務(wù)水平事關(guān) 緊要，因?yàn)樗鼤?huì)影響未來(lái)的經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)，而且債務(wù) 成本越高，借款人的負(fù)擔(dān)就越 重。 Since 2009, the region has been among the most fortunate in the world as its high growth rate attracted disproportionate ca

8、pita l flows from outside. Most of that debt came from domestic borrowing, though, with just $2.5tn of the total in foreign borrowing. 2009年以來(lái)，由于亞洲的高增長(zhǎng)率吸引了數(shù)量多 得離譜的外部資本流入，該地區(qū)一直是全球最幸 運(yùn)的地區(qū)之一。不過(guò)，亞洲大多數(shù)債務(wù)是內(nèi)債， 外債總額僅為2.5萬(wàn)億美元。 In addition, much of Asia still generates current account surpluses, which have le

9、d, in turn, to large foreign exchange reserves. These considerations have led many analysts to con clude that Asia is far less exposed today than it was 17 years ago. 此外，亞洲很多國(guó)家仍有經(jīng)常賬戶(hù)盈余， 這又導(dǎo)致了高額的外匯儲(chǔ)備?？紤]到這些因素， 很多分析師斷定，亞洲今日的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)敞口遠(yuǎn)低于17 年 前。 But the optimistic analysis focuses on the sovereign. The chance

10、s of a systemic crisis are more remote than in 1997, but that i s not to say corporate Asia is immune. Many Asian companies have been huge beneficiaries of the inflows set in train by the Federa l Reserves zero interest rate policies. 但是，這一樂(lè) 觀分析關(guān)注的是主權(quán)債務(wù)。發(fā)生一場(chǎng)系統(tǒng)性危機(jī) 的可能性確實(shí)小于1997年，不過(guò)，這并不是說(shuō)亞 洲企業(yè)不會(huì)受到影響。美聯(lián)

11、儲(chǔ)(Fed)零利率政策導(dǎo) 致大量資金流入亞洲，許多亞洲企 業(yè)從中受益匪淺。 Now, though, a benign period for Asia seems to be drawing to an end. Exports have been growing at a slower rate for many countries in the region. US companies are spending less not only on plant and equipment but also on technology, which hurts a regi on that ha

12、s thrived by providing both corporations and consumers with their technology tools. 不過(guò)，亞洲的 好日子如今似乎快走到頭了。許多亞洲國(guó)家的出 口增長(zhǎng)一直在減速。 美國(guó)企業(yè)不但在廠房與設(shè)備、而且在技術(shù)上減少 開(kāi)支，這對(duì)亞洲構(gòu)成了傷害。亞洲通過(guò)向美國(guó)企 業(yè)和消費(fèi)者供應(yīng)技術(shù)工具取得了蓬勃發(fā)展。 “Emerging Asias foreign liabilities are now higher as a share of ex ports than any time in the last 10 years,” no

13、tes Jahangir Aziz, a Washington-based economist for JPMorgan, adding that as a result there is “increased potential for currency mismatch in the private sector. Corporates are directly exposed to FX shocks.” 摩根大通(JP Morgan)駐華盛頓經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家賈漢吉爾阿齊 茲(Jahangir Aziz)指出：“如今，亞洲新興市場(chǎng)的 外債與出口之比高于以往10年的任何時(shí)候。”他 補(bǔ)充道，其結(jié)果是

14、，“私人部門(mén)出現(xiàn)貨幣錯(cuò)配的 可能性加大了。企業(yè)直接曝險(xiǎn)于外匯沖擊?！?Bond de pendence 債券依賴(lài) Moreover, while as a percentage of total borrowing, foreign borrowing is smaller than in the past, the absolute amou nts and the dependence of some companies on the US bond market is growing. Almost half the borrowers are Chinese, mostly prope

15、 rty and industrial groups. Another 10 per cent are Indonesian. 另外，盡管外債占總債務(wù)的比例低于 過(guò)去，但外債的絕對(duì)額在增加，有些企業(yè)也越來(lái) 越依賴(lài)美國(guó)債券市場(chǎng)。近半數(shù)借款者是中國(guó)企業(yè)， 主要是房地產(chǎn)和工 業(yè)集團(tuán)。另有10%的借款者為印尼企業(yè)。 JPMorgans Asian credit index, which includes both high grade and high yield debt, stands at $500bn, three tim es higher than in 2005. 摩根大通亞洲信貸指數(shù)（

16、既 包含高評(píng)級(jí)又包含高收益?zhèn)┧w的債券總 市值目前為5000億美元，是2005年的3倍。 For the first half of this year issuance was $96b n, while for the whole of last year, $120bn was raised. And while less than 20 per cent of that is high yield, it is worth remembe ring that critical inflection points often reflect incremental changes.

17、 If the US high yield market suffers, the Asian US dollar h igh yield market is likely to register the impact. 今年 上半年，亞洲企業(yè)發(fā)債960億美元，而去年全年發(fā) 債1200億美元。盡管高收益?zhèn)壤蛔?0%，但 不能忘記的是，關(guān)鍵拐點(diǎn)往往是漸進(jìn)式變化的反 映。如果美國(guó)高收 益?zhèn)袌?chǎng)形勢(shì)不好，亞洲美元高收益?zhèn)袌?chǎng) 很可能會(huì)受到?jīng)_擊。 Of the 51 defaults in the market since 2000, 17 were Chinese borrowers an

18、d 23 were Indonesian. Toda y Chinese and Indonesian companies may be especially vulnerable in the face of skittish investors. 2000年以來(lái)亞洲美元高收益?zhèn)袌?chǎng)發(fā)生了51起 違約，中國(guó)借款 企業(yè)占17起，印尼借款企業(yè)占23起。如今，面對(duì) 易受驚嚇的投資者，中國(guó)和印尼企業(yè)可能尤其容 易受到?jīng)_擊。 All these potential clouds over credit markets come at a time when the Chinese stock markets have rallied. Chinese equities have been the single best performing asset class in the past month, (up 4.4 per cent) with inflows at their highest level since December 2012. Meanwhile, the SP 500